Nevada 2nd District Election Results

The left-of-center Republican John McCain barely squeaked by in this district in his Presidential run in 2008. Expect an easy Republican win.

As of 8:03pm local time, with 16 of 858 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) leads Marshall (D) 64 percent to 32 percent.

UPDATE 8:19pm local time: With 65 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) leads Marshall (D) 56 to 39.

UPDATE 8:35pm local time: With 138 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) leads Marshall (D) 58 to 36.

UPDATE 8:53pm local time: With 362 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) leads Marshall (D) 57 to 37. With an 18,500 vote lead, I’m calling this one for Amodei.

UPDATE 9:05pm local time: THE ASSOCIATED PRESS HAS CALLED IT FOR AMODEI (R).
With 375 of 858 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) leads Marshall (D) 57 to 37.

UPDATE 9:20pm local time: With 582 of 858 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) leads Marshall (D) 57 to 37, with a 22,000 vote advantage. Remember, the left of center Republican John McCain barely beat Obama in the 2008 Presidential election with a statistical 49 to 49 tie.

UPDATE 9:42pm local time: With 691 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) continues to lead Marshall (D) 57 to 37, and has a 23,000 vote advantage.

UPDATE 9:57pm local time: With 718 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) leads Marshall (D) 58 to 37, with a 24,000 vote advantage. Amodei wins very easily in this anti-climactic special election.

UPDATE 10:22pm local time: With 785 of 858 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) continues to lead Marshall (D) 58 to 37, with a 25,500 vote advantage.

UPDATE 10:47pm local time: With 825 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) leads Marshall (D) 58 to 36, with a 27,000 vote advantage in a district that McCain barely won 49 to 49 over Obama in 2008, in a state Obama won 55.2 to 42.7. I suggest this is a harbinger of things to come in 2012 and Obama could quite easily lose Nevada to the Republican.

UPDATE 11:42pm local time: All 858 precincts have reported in. The unofficial results are Amodei (R) 74,976 (58 percent), Marshall (D) 46,669 (36 percent). Marshall did not win a single county.

New York 9th District Election Results

Expect multiple updates (if my weak internet connection holds).

The Associated Press as of 10:01pm local time has released the very first set of results.

With 4 precinct out of 512 reporting, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 55 percent to 44 percent. All 4 precincts from Queens.

UPDATE 10:28pm local time: With 27 of 512 precincts reporting, Weprin (D) leads Turner (R) 50 to 49. 26 precincts from Queens and 1 precinct from Brooklyn.

Nate Silver (HT Hot Air) set the benchmarks for Weprin at “about 54% of the votes in Queens precincts, 42% in Brooklyn precincts” to achieve a tie.

UPDATE 10:40pm local time: With 61 of 512 precincts reporting, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 56 to 44. The 53 out of 342 Queens precincts have gone Turner 54 to 46, while the 8 out of 170 Brooklyn precincts have gone Turner 71 to 29.

Sean Trende reported that Anthony Weiner (D) won the 2008 election 65 to 35 in Queens and 52 to 48 in Brooklyn.

UPDATE 11:08pm local time: With 171 of 512 precincts reporting in, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 52 to 48. With 146 of 342 Queens precincts reporting in, Weprin leads 51 to 49 and with 25 of 170 Brooklyn precincts reporting, Turner leads 71 to 28.

UPDATE 11:20pm local time: With 215 precincts reporting in, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 51 to 49. With 176 Queens precincts reporting, Weprin leads 53 to 47 and with 39 Brooklyn precincts reporting, Turner leads Weprin 70 to 30.

UPDATE 11:36pm local time: With 271 precincts reporting in, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 53 to 46. With 216 of 342 Queens precincts reporting, Weprin is leading a statistical tie 50 to 50, while with 55 of 170 Brooklyn precincts reporting, Turner leads 69 to 31.

UPDATE 11:55pm local time: THE ASSOCIATED PRESS HAS CALLED IT FOR TURNER (R).
With 338 of 512 precincts reporting, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 53 to 47. With 260 of 342 Queens precincts reporting, Weprin leads 51 to 48 while with 78 of 170 Brooklyn precincts reporting, Turner leads 69 to 31. Turner has an overall lead in the votes of 24,501 to 21,661.

UPDATE 12:12am local time: With 402 of 512 precincts reporting in, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 53 to 47. With 305 of 342 Queens precincts reporting, Weprin leads 51 to 48 while with 97 of 170 Brooklyn precincts reporting, Turner leads 69 to 31. Expect Turner’s lead to expand as the Queens precincts run out and Brooklyn’s precincts still have a way to go.

Remember, this is a district with a 3 to 1 registered Democrat advantage over registered Republicans, and a worse than national average approval rating of Obama and higher than national average disapproval rating of Obama. In a district Weiner won very handily in 2008.

UPDATE 12:37am local time: With 417 of 512 precincts reporting, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 53 to 46. With 305 of 342 Queens precincts reporting, Weprin leads 51 to 48 while with 112 of 170 Brooklyn precincts reporting, Turner leads 69 to 31.

Remember, in 2008, Weiner (D) won Queens 65 to 35 and Brooklyn 52 to 48.

UPDATE 12:52am local time: With 435 precincts reporting, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 54 to 46. As I said earlier, Turner’s lead is indeed expanding in this heavy Democrat district.

UPDATE 1:04am local time: With 442 of 512 precincts reporting, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 54 to 46. Of note is the fact the 37 Queens precincts that hadn’t reported in as of 12:37am still haven’t reported in as of 1:04am. Is Dana Pico’s suggestion of boxes of ballots in an IBEW Union basement a possible issue of concern? Hrmmmm.

UPDATE 1:23am local time: With 448 precincts reporting, Turner (R) continues to lead Weprin (D) 54 to 46. None of the 37 Queens precincts (or over 10 percent of Queens precincts) that were still out at 12:37am have come in yet.

UPDATE 1:54am local time: No new precincts have reported in. Turner (R) holds a 4,800 vote advantage over Weprin (D), 32,403 to 27,599.

UPDATE 2:32am local time: No new precincts have reported in. RS McCain reports that people who have been dead for several years have been mailed absentee ballots. Bob Turner has already obtained a court order to seal all paper ballots, so if things get hinky, the ballots can be cross-checked with dead people. From ABC News:

Claiming a handful of deceased voters have been mailed absentee ballots for today’s special election, an attorney for Republican congressional candidate Bob Turner told ABC News that he has obtained a court order to seal all paper ballots in New York’s 9th Congressional District, pending judicial review.

“We found five dead people, confirmed, who were mailed absentee ballots,” said Turner’s attorney, Grant Lally. “Some of these people have been dead for years.”

As no new precincts have reported in for a while, this is likely my last update.