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Posts Tagged ‘2011 special election’

West Virginia Governor Special Election Results

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/10/04

The special election to fill Democrat Senator Joe Manchin’s unexpired term as West Virginia Governor was held today. The polls have closed and now comes the counting.

As of 7:58pm local time, the Associated Press has Democrat Acting Governor Tomblin leading 55 percent to Republican Mahoney’s 41 percent, with 6 of 1883 precincts reporting in.

As of 8:05pm local time, the Democrat holds a 60 percent to 37 percent lead. 33 of 1883 precincts reporting.

Early reporting of polling data suggested this race would end in a narrow single-digit victory. A Republican win would be considered an upset.

As of 8:09pm local time, the Democrat holds a 52 percent to 45 percent lead over the Republican. 53 of 1883 precincts reporting.

In the last weeks of the race, the Republican Governors Association pumped money into the race, running ads tying the Democrat to ObamaCare, noting the Democrat refused to sue the Federal Government as 26 other states did. The Republican promised to do just that, becoming the 27th state to sue. Polling data showed the advertising on this issue caused a major swing toward the Republican in the undecided voters.

As of 8:21pm local time, the Democrat leads 50 percent to 46 percent. 156 of 1883 precincts reporting.

West Virginia bucked the national trend in 2010 by maintaining a solid Democrat majority in the Legislature and voting for Democrat Joe Manchin to complete the late Senator Byrd’s (D) Senate term. This despite President Obama’s far below national average approval numbers in the Mountain State.

As of 8:27pm local time, Democrat Tomblin leads 53 percent to 44 percent with a 6,000 vote cushion. 310 precincts reporting.

As of 8:39pm local time, the Democrat leads 52 percent to 45 percent with an 8,000 vote margin. 583 of 1883 precincts reporting.

As of 8:42pm local time, the Democrat leads 51 percent to 45 percent with a 7,600 vote margin. 633 precincts reporting.

As of 8:51pm local time, the Democrat leads 50 percent to 47 percent with a 5,800 vote margin. 913 of 1883 precincts reporting.

West Virginia has not had a Republican Governor since Cecil H Underwood completed his term January 15, 2001.

As of 8:57pm local time, Tomblin, the Democrat leads 51 percent to 46 percent with an 8,600 vote margin. 1062 of 1883 precincts reporting.

As of 9:06pm local time, the AP has called it for Tomblin. The Democrat leads 50 percent to 46 percent with a 9,500 vote cushion. 1307 of 1883 precincts reporting. The 3 independent candidates, representing minor parties have so far combined for fewer than 8,000 votes.

As of 9:12pm local time, the Democrat leads 50 percent to 47 percent with a 7,800 vote cushion. 1396 of 1883 precincts reporting. The 3 independent candidates combined nearly cover the spread but fall short by a handful of votes.

As of 9:18pm local time, the Democrat leads 49 percent to 47 percent with a 6,000 vote margin. 1570 of 1883 precincts reporting.

As of 9:27pm local time, the Democrat leads 49 percent to 47 percent with a 6,000 vote margin. 1600 of 1883 precincts reporting.

Democrats hold a nearly 2 to 1 voter registration advantage over Republicans in the Mountain State.

As of 9:36pm local time, the Democrat leads 49 percent to 47 percent. 1714 of 1883 precincts reporting.

The unofficial tally so far:
Tomblin (D, incumbent) 133,983
Maloney (R) 127,765
Baber (Mountain) 5,519
Ingels (Independent) 2,634
Bertram (Other) 1,034

As of 9:43pm local time, the Democrat leads 50 percent to 47 percent with a 7,400 vote gap. 1776 precincts reporting.

As of 9:52pm local time, the Democrat leads 50 percent to 47 percent. 1777 of 1883 precincts reporting. Scanning the County list for unreported precincts, they all appear to be in counties carried by the Democrat.

As of 10:04pm local time, the Democrat leads 50 percent to 47 percent with a 7,900 vote margin. 1807 of 1883 precincts reporting. The three lesser candidates have combined for 9,600 votes.

Polling during the race showed the race tightened very noticeably when the Republicans put on a late push to tie the Democrat to Obama and ObamaCare. In a state that has a 2 to 1 Democrat registration advantage, the late push to tie the Democrat to Obama made the race far tighter than it would’ve been otherwise. Had the Republicans focused on ObamaCare and the Democrat’s refusal to sue the Federal Government over the unconstitutionality of its implementation earlier than they had, the end results may have been different.

Hopefully, the Republicans see how much damage ObamaCare does to State-level Democrat candidates and starts the push earlier on in future races.

As of 10:13pm local time, the Democrat leads 50 percent to 47 percent. 1868 of 1883 precincts reporting.

Precincts not reporting currently:
Braxton County (1) Democrat leads 59 to 38
Nicholas County (11) Democrat leads 50 to 45
Taylor County (3) Republican leads 50 to 47

As of 10:28pm local time, the Democrat leads 50 percent to 47 percent. 1871 of 1883 precincts reporting.

The unofficial tally to this point:
Tomblin (D, incumbent) 149,909
Maloney (R) 142,197
Baber (Mountain) 6,058
Ingels (Independent) 2,854
Bertram (Other) 1,108

As of 10:34pm local time, all 1883 precincts have reported. The final unofficial tally shows the Democrat won 50 percent to 47 percent.

By the unofficial numbers:
Tomblin (D, incumbent) 150,732
Maloney (R) 142,889
Baber (Mountain) 6,119
Ingels (Independent) 2,867
Bertram (Other) 1,111

Senator Joe Manchin (D – WV) should now know for certain his path to re-election in November, 2012 is by guaranteeing enough separation between himself and the Obama Administration that any attempt to tie him to Obama fails.

Thus ends my live-blogging updates.

Posted in Elections, politics | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

Obama A Drag On WV Gov Race

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/10/04

Another day, another special election where the Republican ties Obama to the Democrat, dragging the Democrat down. This time it is in West Virginia, where the Republican is tying the Democrat to ObamaCare. And it has caused the undecided voters to swing heavily for the Republican. Both sides of the race have stated the Republican Governors Association ads tying the Democrat to implementation of ObamaCare have tightened up the race.

What should’ve been a standard issue Democrat win, with Acting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin (D) filling the unexpired term of former Governor Manchin (D), who the Mountain State sent to Washington, DC to fill the unexpired term of the late Senator Byrd (D) has now become a close race, all due to the Obama Factor. As Aaron Blake at the Washington Post notes, should Republican Bill Maloney win today, it will be an upset.

Democrats now expect the race to be decided by a margin in the low single-digits, while Republicans hold out hope that they can pull off what would be a pretty significant upset but say that have nothing to lose, given the state’s heavily Democratic — if conservative — tilt.

It would indeed be a significant upset because, even as Republicans made big gains elsewhere in 2010, West Virginia stuck by its Democratic roots and returned large Democratic majorities to its state legislature, along with sending Manchin to Washington, despite national Republicans’s best efforts to beat him. And gubernatorial races, which are often decided on state issues rather than national ones, are more insulated from the national winds.

What Republicans have done, though, is transformed the national issue that is Obama’s health care bill into a state one. And given Obama’s approval rating in the state — which has stood in the low-30s for some time — that could be a winning strategy.

Julie Sobel and Sean Sullivan at National Journal add:

Hot-button federal issues aren’t typically at the center of governor’s races. But in West Virginia, businessman Bill Maloney and national Republicans are tying acting Democratic Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin to President Obama late in the race on the president’s signature health care plan. And the issue is likely to surface again in 2012’s most competitive governors’ races. In some places, it already has.

Unlike other issues that have roiled special elections this year — Rep. Paul Ryan’s budget plan, the debate over raising the federal debt ceiling — the states have a role to play in the ongoing battle over the health care law. Twenty-six have joined a legal challenge to the law, and the Republican Governors Association’s final ad in West Virginia focuses on Tomblin’s refusal to join the protest.

Maloney is spending the final stretch arguing that Tomblin’s inaction against Obama’s health care plan is a major reason voters should take a stand against him. “He said early on he didn’t like Obamacare, but now he seems to be okay with it,” Maloney said of Tomblin in an interview with National Journal after a Lincoln Day Dinner appearance in Harrisville. “I’m going to sue, and we’re going to be the 27th state to sue and try to get rid of Obamacare. He’s not going to do that. So that’s a stark difference right there.”

They go on to recite a list of other states where Democrat Governors are being tied to ObamaCare with good results — for the Republicans. It will definitely be an issue in the 2012 Governor, Senate, House, Presidential races, and it will definitely be a drag on all Democrats that are tied to it. Obama and ObamaCare will most certainly cost many Democrats elections.

Pass the popcorn.

Posted in Conservative, Elections, Health Care, Liberal, Obama, Over-regulation, Philosophy, politics, society | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Nevada 2nd District Election Results

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/09/13

The left-of-center Republican John McCain barely squeaked by in this district in his Presidential run in 2008. Expect an easy Republican win.

As of 8:03pm local time, with 16 of 858 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) leads Marshall (D) 64 percent to 32 percent.

UPDATE 8:19pm local time: With 65 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) leads Marshall (D) 56 to 39.

UPDATE 8:35pm local time: With 138 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) leads Marshall (D) 58 to 36.

UPDATE 8:53pm local time: With 362 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) leads Marshall (D) 57 to 37. With an 18,500 vote lead, I’m calling this one for Amodei.

UPDATE 9:05pm local time: THE ASSOCIATED PRESS HAS CALLED IT FOR AMODEI (R).
With 375 of 858 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) leads Marshall (D) 57 to 37.

UPDATE 9:20pm local time: With 582 of 858 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) leads Marshall (D) 57 to 37, with a 22,000 vote advantage. Remember, the left of center Republican John McCain barely beat Obama in the 2008 Presidential election with a statistical 49 to 49 tie.

UPDATE 9:42pm local time: With 691 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) continues to lead Marshall (D) 57 to 37, and has a 23,000 vote advantage.

UPDATE 9:57pm local time: With 718 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) leads Marshall (D) 58 to 37, with a 24,000 vote advantage. Amodei wins very easily in this anti-climactic special election.

UPDATE 10:22pm local time: With 785 of 858 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) continues to lead Marshall (D) 58 to 37, with a 25,500 vote advantage.

UPDATE 10:47pm local time: With 825 precincts reporting, Amodei (R) leads Marshall (D) 58 to 36, with a 27,000 vote advantage in a district that McCain barely won 49 to 49 over Obama in 2008, in a state Obama won 55.2 to 42.7. I suggest this is a harbinger of things to come in 2012 and Obama could quite easily lose Nevada to the Republican.

UPDATE 11:42pm local time: All 858 precincts have reported in. The unofficial results are Amodei (R) 74,976 (58 percent), Marshall (D) 46,669 (36 percent). Marshall did not win a single county.

Posted in Elections, politics | Tagged: , , | 2 Comments »

New York 9th District Election Results

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/09/13

Expect multiple updates (if my weak internet connection holds).

The Associated Press as of 10:01pm local time has released the very first set of results.

With 4 precinct out of 512 reporting, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 55 percent to 44 percent. All 4 precincts from Queens.

UPDATE 10:28pm local time: With 27 of 512 precincts reporting, Weprin (D) leads Turner (R) 50 to 49. 26 precincts from Queens and 1 precinct from Brooklyn.

Nate Silver (HT Hot Air) set the benchmarks for Weprin at “about 54% of the votes in Queens precincts, 42% in Brooklyn precincts” to achieve a tie.

UPDATE 10:40pm local time: With 61 of 512 precincts reporting, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 56 to 44. The 53 out of 342 Queens precincts have gone Turner 54 to 46, while the 8 out of 170 Brooklyn precincts have gone Turner 71 to 29.

Sean Trende reported that Anthony Weiner (D) won the 2008 election 65 to 35 in Queens and 52 to 48 in Brooklyn.

UPDATE 11:08pm local time: With 171 of 512 precincts reporting in, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 52 to 48. With 146 of 342 Queens precincts reporting in, Weprin leads 51 to 49 and with 25 of 170 Brooklyn precincts reporting, Turner leads 71 to 28.

UPDATE 11:20pm local time: With 215 precincts reporting in, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 51 to 49. With 176 Queens precincts reporting, Weprin leads 53 to 47 and with 39 Brooklyn precincts reporting, Turner leads Weprin 70 to 30.

UPDATE 11:36pm local time: With 271 precincts reporting in, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 53 to 46. With 216 of 342 Queens precincts reporting, Weprin is leading a statistical tie 50 to 50, while with 55 of 170 Brooklyn precincts reporting, Turner leads 69 to 31.

UPDATE 11:55pm local time: THE ASSOCIATED PRESS HAS CALLED IT FOR TURNER (R).
With 338 of 512 precincts reporting, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 53 to 47. With 260 of 342 Queens precincts reporting, Weprin leads 51 to 48 while with 78 of 170 Brooklyn precincts reporting, Turner leads 69 to 31. Turner has an overall lead in the votes of 24,501 to 21,661.

UPDATE 12:12am local time: With 402 of 512 precincts reporting in, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 53 to 47. With 305 of 342 Queens precincts reporting, Weprin leads 51 to 48 while with 97 of 170 Brooklyn precincts reporting, Turner leads 69 to 31. Expect Turner’s lead to expand as the Queens precincts run out and Brooklyn’s precincts still have a way to go.

Remember, this is a district with a 3 to 1 registered Democrat advantage over registered Republicans, and a worse than national average approval rating of Obama and higher than national average disapproval rating of Obama. In a district Weiner won very handily in 2008.

UPDATE 12:37am local time: With 417 of 512 precincts reporting, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 53 to 46. With 305 of 342 Queens precincts reporting, Weprin leads 51 to 48 while with 112 of 170 Brooklyn precincts reporting, Turner leads 69 to 31.

Remember, in 2008, Weiner (D) won Queens 65 to 35 and Brooklyn 52 to 48.

UPDATE 12:52am local time: With 435 precincts reporting, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 54 to 46. As I said earlier, Turner’s lead is indeed expanding in this heavy Democrat district.

UPDATE 1:04am local time: With 442 of 512 precincts reporting, Turner (R) leads Weprin (D) 54 to 46. Of note is the fact the 37 Queens precincts that hadn’t reported in as of 12:37am still haven’t reported in as of 1:04am. Is Dana Pico’s suggestion of boxes of ballots in an IBEW Union basement a possible issue of concern? Hrmmmm.

UPDATE 1:23am local time: With 448 precincts reporting, Turner (R) continues to lead Weprin (D) 54 to 46. None of the 37 Queens precincts (or over 10 percent of Queens precincts) that were still out at 12:37am have come in yet.

UPDATE 1:54am local time: No new precincts have reported in. Turner (R) holds a 4,800 vote advantage over Weprin (D), 32,403 to 27,599.

UPDATE 2:32am local time: No new precincts have reported in. RS McCain reports that people who have been dead for several years have been mailed absentee ballots. Bob Turner has already obtained a court order to seal all paper ballots, so if things get hinky, the ballots can be cross-checked with dead people. From ABC News:

Claiming a handful of deceased voters have been mailed absentee ballots for today’s special election, an attorney for Republican congressional candidate Bob Turner told ABC News that he has obtained a court order to seal all paper ballots in New York’s 9th Congressional District, pending judicial review.

“We found five dead people, confirmed, who were mailed absentee ballots,” said Turner’s attorney, Grant Lally. “Some of these people have been dead for years.”

As no new precincts have reported in for a while, this is likely my last update.

Posted in Elections, politics, Vote Fraud | Tagged: , , | 8 Comments »

 
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