Truth Before Dishonor

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Posts Tagged ‘unexpected’

The Ever-Present “Unexpected” Strikes Again

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2012/07/02

Hot Air’s Erika Johnsen, writing about the lower levels of support for Obama among the very young voters, hits on economics. And the ever-present “unexpected” laugh line strikes again.

And with Obama at the helm, it isn’t looking like there’s an end in sight — as Jim Pethokoukis summarizes, several of our already-anemic growth indicators are starting to slow up even more. The hits just keep on coming (unexpectedly, of course):

New data suggests the three-year economic expansion — as anemic as it has been — may be at an end, or is at least perilously close. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index unexpectedly fell to 49.7 in June from 53.5 a month earlier. A reading of less than 50 signals contraction.

Not one of 70 economists interviewed by Bloomberg thought it would be below 50.5. …

But these numbers are just the latest in a long string of worrisome reports including rising initial unemployment claims, slowing job growth, falling consumer confidence, and declining durable goods orders. Oh, and the rest of the global economy is slowing, too.

All these so-called economics experts, Keynesians to a man, who are constantly surprised by the bad economic numbers, and the Left keeps going to them for advice. Keynesianism has been a proven failure in the economically collapsed European community, in faltering China, in faltering US. Where there is real growth in the US, it is despite Obama and the Democrats, not because of them. I give you Texas, which has been an economic leader for at least 10 years. I give you Wisconsin, which threw off the Leftist Government and replaced it with Conservative governance. I give you Ohio and Pennsylvania, which threw off their Leftist Government and installed a far more Conservative Government.

As far as the Leftist position, I give you California, which has seen years of job-and-people flight to far more business-friendly states (like Texas and Utah). I give you Illinois, which has been Democrat-and-corruption-run (but I repeat myself) for quite some time, and pumped in the largest tax increases in Illinois’ history — to results completely “unexpected” by the “experts” but fully warned about by Conservatives (including here on this site, multiple times).

The Keynesian economic “experts” upon whom the radical Leftists so adamantly depend, will always be surprised by actual economics as they continue to tout their abysmally failed economic “theory”. As Conservatives and Republicans (not necessarily the same thing, but Conservatives already knew that) gain more governmental leadership in 2012 and implement much more Austrian Economic theory (the Hayek approach), the Keynesian economists will scream and kick and fight and bite, declaring the end of the world. But the economy will rise out of the Leftist Keynesian ashes, like a Phoenix.




UPDATE 20120703
While Bloomberg couldn’t find an “expert” economist who had forecast below 50.5 among the 70 Bloomberg interviewed, Reuters’ economists had predicted a score of 52.0. And the “expert” economists that the Associated Press talks to suggest the GDP growth rate for Q2 will fall to 1.5 from the 1.9 growth rate experienced in Q1. Those “expert” economists are now declaring their previously forecast 2.0 growth rate for 2012 was too optimistic. While the Baraka Obama propaganda campaign and “budget” ten-year plans have always been dependent on growth rates in the fives, far above historical growth rates, (also meaning his outrageously large self-admitted deficit spending would be ever more outrageously large since tax revenue would be far below “expectations”), a look at the US population growth rate over the past 110 years will clearly show that a 2 percent GDP growth rate isn’t even enough to keep up with the population growth.

Seriously, when will the Left quit listening to Keynesian “experts” when they are so clearly wrong in their predictions and in their philosophy?

Posted in Conservative, economics, Elections, Liberal, Over-regulation, Philosophy, politically correct, Politically Incorrect, politics, society | Tagged: , , , | 3 Comments »

Shocker: Second Quarter GDP Revised Downward

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/08/26

Okay, that’s not a shocker to anyone who’s actually paying attention. It wasn’t even a shocker to the supposedly expert economists upon which America’s Leftists depend — this time. But, while those “experts” expected a downward revision to 1.1 percent growth, the downward revision came in at an even more anemic 1.0 percent growth. And that after the Q1 GDP was revised downward to a flat-line 0.4 percent growth.

Ed Morrissey notes:

The change mainly came from inventories, which the previous estimate overshot. Real final sales of domestic goods — GDP less inventory adjustments — remained at 1.2%, making it a rare quarter in the last two years where this measure outstripped the topline GDP growth rate. Most of the GDP reports have been amped up by inventory expansions. Another bright spot is a revision in consumer spending, which increased 0.4% rather than the initial 0.1% estimate. However, exports got downgraded to a 3.1% increase from an initial estimate of 6.0%. [emphasis mine]

Common Sense Political Thought‘s radical Leftist commenter, Perry (who runs the laughably named Bridging the Gap blogsite), has made numerous claims that businesses aren’t producing or expanding because they want Barack Obama to lose his re-election bid. In Perry’s mind, businesses hate Obama more than they like their own bottom lines. But let’s continue to examine Perry’s delusion, shall we? According to Perry, Conservatives hate Obama because he’s black and we’re raaaaacists. So we want Obama to fail because we’re raaaaacists. And businesses are refusing to expand and hire because they hate Obama. So, that means all these businesses are raaaaacists. Which of course means the radical Leftist Perry doesn’t even have to engage his brain to think. (Barack Obama is 50 percent Caucasian and less than 50 percent black. My grandson is 50 percent black and less than 50 percent Caucasian.)

Let’s look at the facts, shall we? “Most of the GDP reports have been amped up by inventory expansions.” That means businesses have been producing more product in the US than they have been able to sell for most of the quarters since the recession began. Businesses have laid off large numbers of people but still have been outproducing demand. Despite all the layoffs and closures, businesses cannot sell everything they produce as it is. It would be foolish for businesses to expand in that environment. If a business cannot sell what it produces, the business needs to reduce its production, not expand it.

An overproduction (despite a spate of layoffs) can be acceptable and harmless in the short-run. Once purchases return to levels greater than production, the amassed inventory can be dwindled down to normal size again without the need for overtime or a too-quickly expanded work-force. But the longer a business overproduces demand, the more harm comes to the business. Doubly so in some states, which still levy an inventory tax on all the goods the business has warehoused.

Since most quarterly GDP numbers have been inflated by businesses outpacing demand and building up inventory, and some states levy an inventory tax, it would behoove businesses in those states to go on another spate of layoffs to reduce their tax burden and remain profitable, or at least lose less money. And since most quarterly GDP numbers have been inflated by businesses outpacing demand and building up inventory, the radical Leftist Perry’s claims that businesses are refusing to expand because they hate Obama is a verifiably false conspiracy theory.

Oh, by the way, third quarter GDP prospects appear no better than the first 6 months. It seems over-taxing and over-regulating and budget-busting spending does exactly what Conservatives said it does, and exactly the opposite of what radical Leftists like Perry (and the useless Paul Krugman) claim.

Posted in economics, Liberal, media, Obama, Over-regulation, Philosophy, politically correct, politics, society, Tax | Tagged: , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Another “Sarah Palin Was Right” Article

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/06/23

Back in November, Ben Bernanke said of his QE2 printing press hyper-drive that his goal was 2 percent inflation. Sarah Palin said, in November, that it would cause inflation. We’re now officially at 3.6 percent inflation and that number is growing steadily and rapidly.

Bernanke expected QE2 would weaken the dollar (it has) and improve our net exports. Sarah Palin said that any net improvement would only be temporary. Again, Sarah Palin was right.

Bernanke expected QE2 to result in greater business investment. Sarah Palin said, in effect, “not so fast there, bub.” And then she explained exactly why it wouldn’t work and exactly why businesses aren’t investing. And again, Sarah Palin was right.

All the supersmart elite Leftists, such as Bernanke and Krugman and all the other Keynesians, mocked Sarah Palin’s pronouncements and said she didn’t know economics. The actual economic news on all fronts is totally “unexpected” news to all the supersmart elite Leftist Expert Economists, but precisely what Sarah Palin predicted.

The American Thinker has all the facts and figures, including quality charts.

Posted in Conservative, economics, Elections, media, Obama, Over-regulation, Palin, Philosophy, politically correct, Politically Incorrect, politics, society, Tax, TEA Party, truth | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

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