Truth Before Dishonor

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Posts Tagged ‘skewed polling’

Uh Oh! Obama Loses Twelve Points To Romney In Latest Polling

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2012/10/08

Pew has released its October poll and Obama received terrible news. He lost 12 points to Romney in a single month. Perhaps it’s time for Obama’s corrupt Department of Injustice to sue Pew. The Socialist Perry Hood of Lewes, Delaware was crowing about the September Pew poll despite being shown very clearly that the poll was heavily skewed Democrat, far afield of the actual voting populace. So what will the Left (whom Perry Hood parrots) say about the same polling firm now that the numbers show Obama losing by 4? Will they, and consequently the parrot, accept the numbers? I highly doubt it. They’re very inconsistent like that.

Pew’s September poll, and many other polling outfits’ September polls, were heavily skewed to the Democrat side of the RDI. Far afield of the actual voting makeup of the US population. And people went through the effort to unskew the polls. This effort showed Romney with a strong lead over Obama instead of the strong Obama lead that Pew and others were showing. Of course, the Left scoffed at the idea of unskewing their skewed polls. Well, Pew did just that. They unskewed their own September poll with their October poll, showing a far more realistic RDI sample. And the result is Romney leads Obama by 4 in October.

Now there’s a reason polling outfits would skew in September but not in October (or not so badly in October). It’s actually a very simple reason. While there are those who don’t see anything nefarious about the shenanigans, I do. And here’s why:

  • Polling outfits want Liberals to win, so they provide propaganda showing Democrats in unrealistic leads. It helps bring low-information voters into the fold and discourages Conservative voters. It pushes the actual polling numbers more to the polling firms’ liking, thus when it’s time to unskew the polls, the damage has been done.
  • Polling outfits like to tout their accuracy, pointing back to previous voting outcomes compared to their polls; thus, they have to have final unskewed polls to show to unsuspecting readers. Their earlier polls, since they are far enough away from the election, can be ignored. Or they can be said to show the gradual shift toward Conservatives as the cycle goes on (for other insidious anti-First Amendment activities by lawmakers and Leftist activists alike).

In order for the polling outfits to push their two-fold propaganda, they have to push a Left bias in their polls to start and then shift their polls to far more reasonable breakdowns as the election approaches. And this is what Pew has done. It is what other polling firms will be doing, as the election approaches. They have no choice if they want to be believed in later years.

In other bad news, that polling firm the corrupt Obama Department of Injustice sued is showing a 47/47 tie among registered voters, a 5-point Obama loss from its previous poll. What’s worse, this is a poll of registered voters, which consistantly swings two or three points further Left than the actual vote results will show. So, when adjusted for likely voters, Obama is trailing here, too.

In still other news, Obama went from +10 in Michigan in September to +3 now, with a margin of error of +/-4. That means it’s a statistical dead heat in Michigan. And in Pennsylvania, Obama only leads by 2 with a D+6 poll. That makes Pennsylvania a very clear toss-up, unlike what the loony Left were saying.

Mark Davis, who broadcasts on 660 am “The Answer”, declared there are only 4 possible outcomes to the Presidential election:

  • Obama wins by a landslide.
  • Obama wins a squeaker.
  • Romney wins a squeaker.
  • Romney wins by a landslide.

And he declared the first one, where Obama wins by a landslide, ain’t never gonna happen. I agree. The other three possibilities could happen, although he believes the middle two are the most likely. But as time goes on toward the election and the polls start unskewing, it’s looking more and more like the last two are the most likely with Obama’s squeaker least likely of the three and Obama’s landslide still ain’t never gonna happen.

Posted in Elections, Gender Issues, Liberal, media, Obama, politics, society | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Neck And Neck In Ohio?

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2012/09/25

Ohio is a true bellwether state, with a very long trend of voting for the guy that eventually is declared the winner in Presidential elections. You will likely never see a D+5 or R+5 D/R/I electorate in Ohio, as the state trends a much narrower +/-2 with a strong Independent voice generally speaking. If you see a poll that declares Obama leads by 8 in Ohio, for instance, you can throw that poll in the garbage bin. That sort of outcome will never happen in Ohio. So, there’s this new poll that Nice Deb found, showing a neck-and-neck race with Obama ahead 45.2 to 44.3 (and always remember when an incumbent cannot reach 50 percent, especially this late in the season, that incumbent is in trouble). Sounds about right for bellwether Ohio in a tight election year, no?

But there’s more to that poll. Nice Deb points out the heavy skewing of the poll itself. The D/R/I gives Democrats a +10.3 advantage in bellwether Ohio to arrive at a +0.9 for Obama. Nice Deb asks why the completely out of touch with reality Democrat skew for the poll. That’s a very good question. But I have a different observation. In order for the poll to give Obama a +0.9, it had to skew in favor of Democrats by +10.3. The polling firm had to give a huge, unrealistic Leftward advantage just to get Obama up to a tie with Romney/Ryan in bellwether Ohio. That means, Romney/Ryan pretty much have Ohio in the bag. And, as I pointed out, Ohio has a very long track record of voting for the winner, thus, Romney/Ryan will win in November.

Oh, as an aside, after the media-spun “very bad week” for Romney, Gallup moved him from -5 to even. Another “very bad week” for Romney and he might be +5.

Posted in Elections, media, Obama, politics | Tagged: , , , , , | Comments Off on Neck And Neck In Ohio?

 
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