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Posts Tagged ‘Public Policy Polling’

Look Out, Ohio: Obama Up By Five

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2012/09/10

That is, if you believe the notoriously partisan polling firm. And the notoriously partisan polling firm gets linked and quoted a lot, with a great many on the Left holding it as gospel. This notoriously partisan polling firm which the Left love has stated that Obama leads Romney by 5 in Ohio.

Professor Jacobson has asked why Conservatives even bother talking about Progressive Party Pollers (also known as Public Policy Polling or PPP) due to their notorious shady poll weighting. My answer to that question is in the lines of “you know the Left is in trouble when even they say it”. But this is not the case. Not this time. I previously noted PPP’s heavy weighting of its polls for Democrats in stark contrast to reality. Well, they’re doing it again.

The point about independents gets to the heart of the issue with this poll. The sample (pdf) has a D/R/I split of 41/37/22. The 37% that Republicans get in this survey matches their 2010 midterm turnout, which had a D/R/I of 36/37/28. The 41% for Democrats significantly exceeds that turnout, and also exceeds the 2008 election’s 39/31/30 exit polling that produced the five-point margin of Obama victory in the election.

There is a reason Ohio is a multi-generational Bellwether state. It’s because Ohio tends to have three-way parity in its voter turnout. But PPP is reporting out its polling as if Ohio were a Leftist bastion. And everyone who knows Ohio like I do, having lived there for 44 years, knows Ohio is nowhere near as Democrat as PPP claims. At all. Ohio will be less Democrat this year than four years ago. You can bank on that.

In 2008, Obama won Ohio by 5 points (just like this current PPP poll says he leads now). Obama also won the very large independent vote by 8 points. While PPP allows that Romney leads Independents by 2 points (a 10-point swing against Obama), PPP claims Obama maintains the same 5 point edge overall. Why? Because, while Republicans have a higher voter registration percentage today than in 2010 and Democrats have a lower voter registration percentage today than in 2008, Democrats will have 2 points more representation this election year than in 2008, despite the fact that opinion on Obama has tanked, despite the fact of the Conservative wave after wave after wave sweeping the country, despite all reality. And Independents will have 10 points fewer representation — in an Independent-heavy state — than in 2008.

If Independents have indeed swung 10 points away from Obama as PPP suggests (and who can believe even that after PPP proved themselves in the tank for the Democrat position?), then all is well in Ohio and November will see Obama lose that important state.

Posted in Character, Elections, funny business, media, Obama, Ohio, politics, truth | Tagged: , , , , | Comments Off on Look Out, Ohio: Obama Up By Five

More Bad Polling News For Barack Obama

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/09/12

A new PPP poll (that Legal Insurrection rightly discounts, due to its standard heavy over-sampling of Democrats in all its polls) spells trouble for Obama and the Democrats. In NY-9, Anthony Weiner’s old NYC district, the Republican Turner leads the Democrat Weprin by 6 points. This in a district that has registered Democrats leading registered Republicans 3 to 1.

Ed Morrissey has the internals and even more bad news for Democrats. The poll, which has a sampling of 59 percent Democrats and 25 percent Republicans, gives Obama a 31/56 approval rating, or 25 points underwater. That’s worse than the national average and in a heavily Democrat district.

But here’s the more troubling news for Democrats:

Either way, running in statistical dead heats with Rick Perry and Mitt Romney in NY-09 is a big sign of trouble for Obama. Even more so is the finding that a district with such a large Democratic advantage would slightly prefer a Republican Congress, 45/44, and have slightly more confidence in Congressional Republicans than Obama on leading America in the right direction, 44/42. Bear in mind that this same sample gave Congressional Republicans a 31/50 approval rating in the question directly preceding the questions about leadership and Congressional control.

PPP concludes that Obama has lost independents, and a significant number of Democrats as well — all of whom will vote with the GOP tomorrow[.]

So NY-9 voters, a heavily Democrat district, disapprove of Obama at higher rates than the national average, disapprove of Congressional Republicans but prefer a Republican Congress over a Democrat Congress and believe the Republican Congress is more likely to lead the US in the right direction than Obama. And apparently, some Democrats in leadership are starting to wake up to the fact Obama will be a drag on the Democrat ticket in November, 2012, but so far they haven’t awakened to the actual reason why. And the longer they refuse to face the actual cause of their downfall, the better it will be for every man, woman, and child in the US as more of them will be voted out in favor of Constitutional Conservatives.

Posted in economics, Elections, Liberal, media, Obama, Philosophy, politics, society | Tagged: , , , | 2 Comments »

Public Policy Polling (PPP) And Why It Should Be Ignored

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/08/12

William A Jacobson over at Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion is baffled at why Conservative sites would even bother reporting on the findings of PPP.

It seems that every time I bother to look at the numbers behind a PPP poll, I find that they over sampled Democrats. While I have not tested a majority of PPP polls, in the times I’ve looked at their numbers I’ve never seen a sampling which reflected party-affiliation reality or which oversampled Republicans. Maybe I’ve just had bad luck, or maybe there is a problem at PPP.

So it is no surprise that Ed Morrissey at HotAir finds the same problem in a PPP poll purporting to show Obama doing well in Colorado[.]

And the problem Ed Morrissey sees?

The respondents in the PPP poll break out to a ridiculous D/R/I of 41/33/26. That may be why “only Mitt Romney improves on John McCain’s 9-point margin of defeat” — because PPP gave the Democrats a nine-point flip in the sample. In the 2008 election, Barack Obama won Colorado, but Republicans narrowly edged Democrats in exit polling, with a D/R/I of 30/31/39. PPP adds eleven points to Democrats, two to Republicans, and takes 13 points off of independents from a wave election for Democrats. Is there any universe in which Colorado Democrats have gained so much in strength after nearly three years of bad economic news and White House drift?
[italics his, bold mine]

In 2008, Obama won the national popular vote by seven points and the Colorado vote by nine points, a wave election year for Democrats. That year that Democrats were strong had the D/R/I at 30 Democrat/31 Republican/39 Independent. Since then, Democrats have been trending down, not up, while Independents have been trending up, not down. It is not possible, given the definite trend and the unpopularity of Obama among Independents (who have reversed course in a major way since the 2008 election), for Democrats to pick up 11 percent more voters in Colorado. Thus, PPP acted dishonorably in generating its weighting and results. Because PPP wants Democrats (and Obama) to look stronger than they actually are so as to improve popular perception of Democrats (and Obama).

Posted in Elections, funny business, Liberal, media, Obama, politically correct, politics, society, truth | Tagged: , , | 2 Comments »

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