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Posts Tagged ‘polls’

Even More Bad Polling News For Obama

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2012/10/09

Late last night (cross-posted on The First Street Journal), I posted the very bad national polling news for Obama from Pew and Gallup and the bad polling news for Michigan and Pennsylvania. Today, we have even more bad polling news for Obama.

Daily Kos commissioned PPP (I know, I know, a nutball site commissioning a Leftist agenda-driven polling service) to poll the nation, and found Obama trailing Romney by two points. (Link to Hot Air, so it’s safe to click. Ed Morrissey links to DKos.) It’s a 6-point loss for Obama in a week in this poll. And then there’s the skewing:

The sample is a D+3, which is on its own a reasonable model for the turnout in four weeks, but the D/R/I is 40/37/23. That significantly undersamples independents, which becomes an issue when one sees how independents break out in the election. Romney has a six-point lead among independents, 48/42, and that low number for Obama will become a real problem in four weeks, as late deciders usually break hard for the challenger and away from the incumbent. Independents disapprove of Obama’s job performance by a wide margin, 34/55 (he’s at 43/53 in the overall survey), and the Democratic Party doesn’t fare well among indies either, with a 33/50 approval rating — which is, to be fair, about identical to how they view the GOP, too (33/51). By an even wider margin, likely independent voters believe the country is on the “wrong track,” 29/62. Those are not re-elect numbers for an incumbent who won independents by eight points in 2008.

Obama is completely collapsing among independent voters. And the severe undersample of independents requires a warning label: WARNING: Democrats in this mirror appear closer than they are.

Rasmussen’s swing state poll, covering eleven states Obama won, shows Obama losing 8 points in 5 days. As Ed Morrissey explains:

The tracking poll dropped the results from last Monday and added yesterday’s results. That is what produced the five-point swing, and it suggests that stronger results might be on the way, as the last two pre-debate results will drop out tomorrow and Wednesday. Obama had led in this tracking poll by as much as six points on October 1st and 4th, the latter the day after the debate and the last day with no debate-driven results. Obama’s lead went from 6 to 5, then to 3 and a few days at 2 before today’s reversal.

The states covered?

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Ed Morrissey reports on a heavily skewed Ohio poll that is even more bad news for Obama:

A new ARG poll shows Romney now leading Obama in Ohio, 48/47 — even with a D+9 sample. The D/R/I in this poll is 42/33/25; the 2008 election was 39/31/30; in 2010, it was 36/37/28. Among independents, Romney leads by 20 points, 57/37; Obama won them by 8 in Ohio in 2008, 52/44. I would assume that a proper balance that included more independents would extend Romney’s lead significantly.

That’s a 28-point Obama loss among independents in bellwether Ohio. Obama is trailing Romney by 1 in a poll that grossly oversamples Democrats and grossly undersamples Independents. A more accurate sampling of Ohio would have Obama trailing by several more points. And for the record, I spent 44 years of my life in Ohio. And I know, from my vast experience in Ohio, that Obama will not have the historically outsized Democrat-percentage turnout he garnered in 2008. It is not going to happen, folks.

The wheels on the Obama bus are falling off, which is karmic justice considering how many bodies those wheels have crushed over the last four years.

Posted in Elections, media, Obama, Ohio, politics, society | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

More Bad Polling News For Obama

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/10/20

Ed Morrissey has the news. Illinois voters barely give Obama over 50 percent in approval, and while he still retains a lead against each Republican Primary contender, Obama cannot get up to 50 percent re-elect numbers. In Illinois, his adopted home state. In Illinois, the state with more dead people voting per capita than any other state in the union. This does not bode well for Obama’s re-elect chances.

Do I expect Obama to lose in Illinois? No. But there are other ramifications involved. If Obama is currently incapable of reaching a 50 percent re-elect number in Illinois (and any incumbent under 50 percent is in dangerous territory), his numbers outside deep-blue Illinois — especially those in the purple states — will be worse. And Obama will have to spend large amounts of cash to ensure an Illinois win, money he would rather spend in purple states like Ohio and Florida, in other states he won last time like Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire.

Obama’s polling numbers in New York and New Jersey are also alarming — to Democrats. Many Democrats have already made it clear they do not want to be seen with Obama for fear their being tied to Obama could cost them their own elections. And with tax-raiser Illinois Democrat Governor Pat Quinn polling horrible approval numbers in Illinois, Obama might not want to be seen with Illinois’ Democrat Governor in Illinois.

The Obama campaign had been talking about their billion-dollar-campaign plans, but the money isn’t rolling in like it would need to be. In fact, this time in George W Bush’s re-election bid, George W Bush had brought in more campaign donations than has Obama. And Obama’s big contributors — those Wall Street businessmen — aren’t all that into him this time around, for some odd reason (heh). And with the Unions losing Union dues at the same time they’re spending very large amounts of cash on other issues in multiple other states (Wisconsin and Ohio to name two), the big Union money will be harder to come by for the re-elect Obamanation campaign at a time when Obamanation is hurting for polling numbers and votes.

RELATED

Obama: Record Highs In Quinnipiac October 6
More Polling Numbers Democrats Won’t Like September 30
Democrat Outlook Worse Than 2010 September 26
Next Big Collapse: The UAW? September 24
Obama Polling Crash Adds To 2012 Perfect Storm September 8
Could 2012 Be Another TEAnami? September 19

Posted in Elections, Obama, politics, society | Tagged: , | Comments Off on More Bad Polling News For Obama

More Polling Numbers Democrats Won’t Like

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/09/30

I previously reported on the voting public’s positions on various issues and their stance opposing Democrat positions. A plurality (44 percent) are fiscal Conservatives while a small minority (11 percent) are fiscal Liberals. 2/3 want the border controlled before dealing with any other possible illegal immigrant solutions. The numbers regarding educating illegal immigrants gets more glaring, with 4 out of 5 saying they don’t want illegal immigrants to get in-state tuition rates. Over 7 in 10 Hispanic voters in “battleground” states approve of Voter ID. The majority of voters favor repealing ObamaCare, 20 points above those who don’t want it repealed. All of these issues have the Democrat party on the wrong side of the voting public.

But there’s more, as the late-night infomercials say. The next batch of polling numbers are again opposing Democrat party positions.

Most voters support the Death Penalty.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of American Adults shows that 60% favor the death penalty, while 28% oppose it. Another 12% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This is little changed from surveys dating back to November 2009, with support for capital punishment running from 61% to 63%.

Over 2/3 of men and a majority of women support the Death Penalty. Over 3/4 of Republicans and 6 in 10 independents support the Death Penalty. And the Democrat base is evenly divided on the issue. While a bare majority of blacks oppose the Death Penalty, a clear majority of Whites and non-black minorities support the Death Penalty. So as an issue, the Democrat party leadership is on the wrong side.

Most voters favor a Balanced Budget Amendment, something the Democrat party and many Ruling Class Republicans oppose.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters shows that 56% are in favor of a balanced budget amendment while 22% are opposed and another 22% are undecided.

Most Republicans (68%) and voters not affiliated with either party (54%) support a balanced budget amendment. So do a plurality of Democrats (46%).

The vast majority of voters support term limits for Congress, something the Ruling Class of both parties opposes.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 71% of Likely U.S. Voters favor establishing term limits for all members of Congress. Just 14% oppose setting such limits, and 15% are undecided about them.

The majority of voters are “just not that into” giving government subsidies for alternative energy.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Likely U.S. Voters think free market competition is more likely than government subsidies and regulation to help the United States develop alternative sources of energy. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 27% believe government subsidies and regulations are the better way to go. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.

But then 71% of voters say private sector companies and investors are better than government officials when it comes to determining the long-term benefits and potential of new technologies. Sixty-four percent (64%) think it’s likely that if a private company which cannot find investors gets funding from the government, that money will be wasted.

If private investors aren’t willing to put money into a company, only 17% of voters think the federal government should provide loan guarantees or loans to help keep such a company in business. Fifty-nine percent (59%) say the government should not provide money for an alternative energy company after private investors refuse to invest in it. Twenty-three percent (23%) are not sure.

More voters say being “pro-gun” is good and “union supported” is bad than say the reverse. 6 in 10 Americans believe if the Government raises taxes to reduce the deficit, it will only cause more Government spending (which means the public isn’t buying the Democrat party’s “the Republicans don’t want to raise taxes so they’re not serious about the debt” false dichotomy fallacy), while the majority believe if the Government agrees to cut spending, no spending will actually be cut (which means the public knows the Government’s history).

On practically every issue, the Democrat party stands in opposition to the will of the public. On practically every issue, the Democrat party stands in opposition to the will of independent voters. Is it any wonder a Democrat poll showed Democrats in a worse position in 60 Republican-held “battleground” districts now than in 2010, when Democrats were swept out of office? Is it any wonder Democrats are losing the independent vote?

Posted in Conservative, economics, Elections, Health Care, Liberal, Obama, Personal Responsibility, Philosophy, politically correct, Politically Incorrect, politics, society, term limits | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Democrat Outlook Worse Than 2010

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/09/26

Democrats are pinning their hopes on making a comeback after their disastrous 2010 election results, and they have selected 60 Republican-held “battleground” districts to try to make that change. Well, they can HOPE for CHANGE in the results all they want. According to a Democrat pollster, things look even worse now than they did in 2010. From National Journal comes the news.

One of the Democratic party’s leading pollsters released a survey of 60 Republican-held battleground districts today painting an ominous picture for Congressional Democrats in 2012. The poll shows Democratic House candidates faring worse than they did in the 2010 midterms, being dragged down by an unpopular president who would lose to both Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Mitt Romney.

Pollster Stan Greenberg released the poll with some sugary spin for Democrats, downplaying the results by arguing that the president’s jobs plan will improve the party’s fortunes.

How’s that working out for you? Yeah, that “jobs” plan is going over like a lead balloon as Senate Democrats are loudly declaring “No, you don’t”. And those lead balloons tend not to bounce all that well.

But the numbers – at least right now — are troubling for Democrats, and echoed some of the takeaways from the GOP special election upset in New York City last week. Instead of an overall anti-incumbent sentiment impacting members of both parties, voters are taking more of their anger out on Democrats. When voters were asked whether they’re supporting the Republican incumbent or a Democratic candidate, 50 percent preferred the Republican and just 41 percent backed the Democrat.

Voters in these districts said they were more supportive of Republicans than they were during the 2010 midterms, when 48 percent said they backed the Republican candidate and 42 percent said they backed the Democrat. (Republicans won 55 percent of the overall vote in these 60 battleground districts, while Democrats took 43 percent.) In 2010, Republicans netted 63 House seats – their best showing since 1948.

So, according to a Democrat pollster, the voters are two percent more likely to vote for a Republican and one percent less likely to vote for a Democrat now than in 2010, the year of the TEA Party-lead Republican tsunami. No, the Democrats will have to forget about trying to win back seats and start to figure out how to save what Democrat seats they have, because 2012 is lining up to be another year of across-the-board Republican gains, led by the TEA Party/Conservative grass-roots wave.

Here’s a blast from the past. January 25, 2010, ABC News.

Rep. Marion Berry, D-Ark., fears that these midterm elections are going to go the way of the 1994 midterms, when Democrats lost control of the House after a failed health care reform effort.

But, Berry told the Arkansas Democrat Gazette, the White House does not share his concerns.

“They just don’t seem to give it any credibility at all,” Berry said. “They just kept telling us how good it was going to be. The president himself, when that was brought up in one group, said, ‘Well, the big difference here and in ’94 was you’ve got me.’ We’re going to see how much difference that makes now.”

(What’s with the pink highlighting, ABC?) Yes, that was the difference, alright. The 2010 elections were an even greater landslide than the 1994 elections. And it continues to be the difference. After the 1994 elections, President Clinton commandeered multiple Republican agenda items as his own. After the 2010 elections, President Obama threw a hissy fit and doubled down on his ad hominem and straw-man attacks while maintaining the Leftist agenda. So, the difference between 1996 and 2012 is you Democrats have Obama.

The news coming out of Virginia is definitely bad for Democrats, as Ed Morrissey points out.

In 2008, Barack Obama sailed to victory over John McCain in Virginia by six points in the normally Republican state, promising “hope and change.” According to a new poll from Roanoke College in Virginia, Obama certainly brought change. The incumbent President trails both Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, and can only muster 33% support against a generic Republican — twenty points below his popular-vote percentage in 2008[.]

The really bad news? Roanoke polled adults, not registered or likely voters. Democrats tend to do much better in polls that don’t screen for registration, which means that a more predictive sample would undoubtedly have produced even less pleasant results for Obama.

Chances are very strong that Virginia is lost to Obama, as Virginians will vote the ABO (anyone but Obama) line in 2012. As Ed Morrissey said, expect Democrats to only put in enough money in Virginia to attempt to protect down-ticket incumbent Democrats.

New York City this year put a Republican in a seat held by Democrats since the 1920s as the Republican candidate tied the Democrat candidate directly to Obama. Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District, a “battleground” district Democrats hoped to capture, saw the Republican demolish the Democrat by 20 points as, once again, the Republican tied the Democrat directly to Obama.

Smitty notes that The New Republic’s William Galston is upset that Democrats are losing the independent vote.

As Democrats are looking at 2012 being a much worse outcome than 1996, there is another correlation, and that is between 2012 and 1980. There are many similarities: a bad economy that is not improving, a lot of ugliness going on in the Middle East that the President isn’t fit to handle, a very unpopular President, a Conservative grass-roots distaste for the Establishment Republicans, the Establishment Republicans fighting hard against a Conservative Republican candidate. But there are differences as well. In 1980, Republicans still had the shadow of Watergate hanging over them. In 2012, Democrats have more than just a shadow of Fast and Furious, Solyndra, LightSquared. It has even gotten to the point that many incumbent Democrats do not want to be photographed with Obama, because they cannot afford to be tied to Obama if they want to win reelection.

No, Democrats, the difference between Clinton and Obama is Obama never learned and is still rhetorically mauling the public. And the public doesn’t like being mauled.

Posted in Character, Conservative, economics, Elections, history, Liberal, media, Obama, Personal Responsibility, Philosophy, politically correct, Politically Incorrect, politics, society, TEA Party | Tagged: , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Obama Polling Crash Adds To 2012 Perfect Storm

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/09/08

I previously reported on Obama’s record low polling in the NBC/Wall Street Journal and ABC/Washington Post polls, and dug into the NBC/WSJ poll to show the demographics favoring Obama and the Democrats, which meant Obama’s record underwater level was actually worse than the poll showed. Last night’s Hot Air Quotes of the Day just added to the devastating polling details.

The most recent Gallup poll, which also showed record low, underwater polling for Obama, has major bad news for the Democrats. Gallup’s month-to-month ratings showed Obama reaching new record lows in August among overall at 41 percent, Hispanics at 48 percent, and Whites at 33 percent, while tying his record low among Blacks at 84 percent.

While the Black approval rating has only dropped 8 points from its high of 92 in February 2009, the decline among Hispanics and Whites has been precipitous, with the Hispanic approval dropping 27 points from its February 2009 rating of 75 and 34 points from its high of 82 later in 2009, and White approval dropping 25 points from its February 2009 approval high of 58. What does this mean for Obama, and more importantly, for Democrats overall? In short, it means trouble and in a major way.

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Posted in Elections, Liberal, media, Obama, politics, race, society, TEA Party, Youth | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

Does CCB Have Life?

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/08/08

As the US Senate “tabled” the US House “Cut, Cap, and Balance” bill that met Standard & Poor’s requirements to maintain AAA credit rating on a strictly party-line vote and elected to pass a very weak-sauce bill that did not meat Standard & Poor’s requirements, Standard & Poor’s did what they said they’d do: Lower the US credit rating. And of course, the Democrat loudmouths went all over the airwaves bawling their little heads off about the “terrorist” TEA Party who “held our country hostage”. They also bawled their little heads off at the meanie Standard & Poor’s who tax cheat “TurboTax” Tim Geithner claimed didn’t understand Federal Budgeting. (Irony meter got shattered on that one.)

That’s not going to change the credit rating. But passing CCB very well could. The Sundries Shack (HT The Other McCain) examined a CNN/ORC poll that came out during the dust-up — the same poll the Democrats were using to claim the majority of Americans support tax increases. Except CCB had much broader support than the tax increase idea.

[W]hen you get into the demographic breakdowns — where the poll shows you what people of different races, genders, income levels, and political affiliations felt about the plans — you find that only the Cut, Cap, and Balance plan enjoys majority support from every single group.

Now, go back and read Question 23 again, then look at the percentages by group of people who favor that approach.

Men: 67%; Women: 66%
White: 69%; Non-White: 63%
18-34 Year Olds: 64%; 35-49 Year Olds: 70%; 50-64 Year Olds: 62%; 65+ Year Olds: 73%
Under 50: 67%; 50 and Older: 67%
(Yearly earnings) Under $50,000: 73%; (Yearly earnings) Over $50,000: 63%
No College: 76%; Attended College: 60%
Democrat: 64%; Independent: 65%; Republican: 73%
Conservative: 77%; Moderate: 65%; Liberal: 53%
Northeast: 65%; Midwest: 61%; South: 71%; West: 68%
Urban: 66%; Suburban: 65%; Rural: 73%
Tea Party Supporters: 74%; Tea Party Neutral: 74%; Tea Party Opposed: 53%

I know those numbers can be a bit dizzying, grouped together like that. Notice, though, that none of them — not a single one — is less than 50% and only 2 of the 29 are under 60%. What those numbers say very clearly is America supports “Cap, Cut, and Balance”, man or woman, rich or poor, young or old, Democrat or Republican, Tea Party or not. No matter where you go around the country, no matter who you ask, you are more likely to find someone who wants Congress to cut the size of government, put real caps on government spending, and pass an effective and simple Balanced Budget Amendment than not. Even the most ardent progressives, those who identify themselves as liberal and opposed to the Tea Parties and the people to whom the White House Goon Squad spoke directly on all the talk shows today, support the “extremist” plan pushed by the Tea Parties.

CNN is responsible for the poll that shows every side of the issue, every demographic, shows majority support for CCB. This wasn’t some TEA Party poll; it was a Left-leaning CNN poll. And blasting the TEA Party did so well in 2010… Now, blasting experts in the world of credit, too? When the majority of Democrats, Liberals, TEA Party opponents, poor, young, old all support the CCB deal that would’ve prevented the downgrade? I got a (NSFW) suggestion for you.

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Posted in Conservative, economics, Elections, Liberal, media, Obama, Palin, Philosophy, politically correct, Politically Incorrect, politics, society, Tax, TEA Party, terrorists, truth | Tagged: , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

What Those Self-Proclaimed Right Wing Extremist™ Blogs Are Saying

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/05/24

Since the radical Leftist government wants to keep track of Right Wing Extremist™ activities, I figured I’d help them out. Here are some of the things the Self-Proclaimed Right Wing Extremist™ blogs are saying:

Beers with Demo on Indiana eradicating the US Fourth Amendment:

One gets the sense that the ruling views the 4th amendment as somewhat anachronistic in that the threat of brutish red coats violating the sovereignty of our property is long past and that any apparent violations can be addressed in the refined civility of the court room. There may no longer be any red coats but we don’t see how that is justification for relaxing our guard against tyranny via the unwarranted search and seizure of our property by the government or anyone else for that matter.

Common Sense Political Thought on more of Socialist Noam Chomsky’s idiocy (this time regarding the Islamic Terrorist bin Laden):

He could have been shot in the back of the head without it being “execution-style,” if he happened to turn around in fear. But, quite frankly, if the SEALs had him down on his knees, and did shoot him in the back of the head, it was absolutely the right thing to do. Capturing him alive, and bringing him to the United States or anywhere else for trial would have led to years of outlandish legal actions and provided the impetus for God only knows how many terrorist kidnappings and attacks in “exchange” for the captured al Qaeda leader.

Head Noises on Herman Cain and Israel (that she cross-posted here at my behest):

“The Palestinian right of return” is NOT an explanation when someone responds “right of return?”
I thought the interviewer had at least said something like “the ability for those Palestinians who use to live in the land that is now Israel to return to Israel.” Sure, the interviewer explained it a little more afterwards, and Cain reiterated that IT IS UP TO ISRAEL. Not seeing a big problem, there, if one ignores the automatic baggage. Anybody with some unbiased brain power knows that Israel, left to her own choices, is pretty good at surviving.

The Other McCain on AP’s disgraceful radically left-weighted polling:

‘That’s Not a Poll That’s Psy-Ops!’

So says Da Tech Guy about an Associated Press poll that surveyed nearly twice as many Democrats (35%) as Republicans (18%). You will perhaps not be surprised that this poll shows Obama with a 63% approval rating.

Speaking of “psy-ops” — psychological warfare — let me explain something: Nothing so sways the independent voter as bandwagon psychology.

On to those Right Wing Extremist™ blogs who are not self-proclaimed but just trying to hide it…

The Liberator Today discusses the TEA Party and Presidential Issues (and I’m not in full agreement, and that’s obvious when you read the article).

Michelle Malkin writes about consummate insider and Statist Republican Newt Gringrich trying to make like an outsider.

The Wintery Knight pushes for a Michele Bachmann Presidential candidacy.

Caffeinated Thoughts explains why same-sex marriage is not a civil rights issue.

Secondhand Smoke discusses the ObamaNation threatening to cut off Indiana’s poor from Medicaid since Indiana cut off the abortion mill Planned Parenthood.

There, I think I helped the radical Leftist government keep track of the Right Wing Extremist™ blogs enough… and helped sane people realize what’s going on with the radical Leftist, America-hating ObamaNation Administration of late.

Posted in Blogging Matters, Character, Conservative, Constitution, Elections, Health Care, Islam, Israel, Liberal, media, Obama, Over-regulation, Palin, Personal Responsibility, Philosophy, politically correct, Politically Incorrect, politics, Religion, society, stereotype, Tax, TEA Party, terrorists, war | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

 
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