Truth Before Dishonor

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Posts Tagged ‘Electoral College’

How Barack Obama Loses In 2012

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2012/06/03

I actually wrote this as a comment on The First Street Journal, but I thought it worthy of its own article.

 

Obama will not win any states he lost in 2008. I guarantee that. So, Obama has to hold onto the states he won in 2008. And he will lose some of those states. I guarantee that, as well.

Obama will lose Indiana and North Carolina, two states he won in 2008. That’s “settled science.” Trends show Obama losing Florida. Ohio and Virginia are sliding toward the Republican column. Nebraska split its electoral votes in 2008. The Democrat Cornhusker Kickback was so roundly despised by the Cornhusker State that I project a full slate of Republicans in their electoral college. And it is likely that New Hampshire returns to its Conservative tradition (or New England Conservative, which is far squishier than the vast majority of the nation’s Conservatives).

Here’s a map showing the 2008 US Presidential election results from US Election Atlas.org, which I’ve previously used on more than one occasion (for more detailed information or to look at previous election results, click the above link and not the map itself):

So, breaking down what I wrote above:
Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia flip from Democrat to Republican, and Nebraska goes from split electors to a full slate of Republican electors.

That is all that is necessary to boot the Socialist from the Oval Office.

But Obama cannot just focus on those states. Round about 50 million Union dollars spent in Wisconsin to get rid of the Republicans (who righted Wisconsin’s economic ship and reduced Wisconsin’s tax burden) all for naught. The Republican Governor and the Republican Government survives. In fact, the Republican Governor could very easily win with a double-digit margin, making the Recall election a Republican Mandate — to the horrors of a great many Democrats, who are suddenly down-playing the Wisconsin Recall after they had previously declared it something far more. Democrats had pointed to Wisconsin and declared, basically “this is what happens when you go against the Unions and Democrats.” But what happens? You win and the Unions and Democrats (same thing, really, Socialists, all) lose. So they’re now down-playing the Recall Election after they basically spent 50 million dollars leading up to it.

So Obama could lose Wisconsin, the “birthplace of American Progressives”. Meatchicken (I’m from Ohio, and that’s how any honorable Ohioan would spell that State Up North, as Woody always called it) is in play. Obama could lose Meatchicken. Pennsylvania is looking stronger and stronger for Republicans this cycle. Maine could go Republican this cycle. Nevada is not a Democrat lock, by any stretch of the imagination. Iowa could flip Republican.

There are actually rumblings that New Jersey, with Chris Christie being rather liked for his major fixes to that chronically damaged and chronically Democrat state, might be ready to go Republican this cycle.

For various scenarios, do view 270 To Win.

There are essentially 3 main reasons why Barack Obama is doing so poorly:

  • Barack Obama himself, and his massively over-reaching, totalitarian Socialist agenda that too many patriotic Americans hate.
  • The TEA Party and their Life, Liberty, Pursuit of Happiness, Patriotic aims.
  • The exploding blogosphere, breaking through the Hard-Left agenda of lamestream media.

Those three points should very likely mean the death of the contempt of Federal Court Barack Obama Regime.

(The chart on the right, of the top political contributors from 1989 to 2011, with its absolutely one-sided Democrat nature was provided to prevent a standard Liberal lie concerning political money. Look at all the Union money going almost all Democrat and the dearth of corporate money doing anywhere near the same for Republicans. Also note the absolute absence of the Leftists’ chosen fall-guy, the Koch Brothers, from that list. Source: Open Secrets.)

Posted in Blogging Matters, Conservative, Constitution, Elections, Health Care, Liberal, media, Obama, Philosophy, politics, society, TEA Party | Tagged: , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Obama’s Electoral College Problem

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/10/21

The 2008 Electoral College results from US Election Atlas.org:

Barack Obama’s approval in Ohio is under water, at 43/52, and even worse among independents, at 39/57, according to PPP (which is well known for its over-sampling of Democrats). What’s worse, Obama and Romney are tied at 46 percent each in head-to-head polling, and among the 8 percent of undecided voters, Obama’s approval rating is a myopic 18 percent. (HT The Other McCain)

Barack Obama’s approval rating in Illinois is barely over 50 percent and he can’t even reach the 50 percent level in head-to-head polling against the Republican challengers. And Democrat Governor Pat Quinn’s numbers are even worse than Obama’s, so it’s doubtful Obama will want to enlist the aid of the Democrat Governor of Illinois, who signed into law the state’s largest ever tax increases, killing jobs in the process.

Barack Obama’s approval rating in Florida is 39/57.

Barack Obama’s approval rating in New York State is 45/49 while his approval rating among Union households in New York State is 46/49. In New York – 9, Anthony Weiner’s old seat, which is 3/1 Democrat/Republican and has been a Democrat seat since 1921, the Republican won by tying the Democrat to Obama. The Occupy Wall Street mob who took over Zuccotti Park have enraged the local residents, possibly causing further harm to Democrat chances in the state.

Barack Obama’s approval rating in New Jersey is 44/52, 39/57 among independents, with 49 percent of New Jerseyites declaring Obama does not deserve to be re-elected.

Barack Obama’s approval rating in Portland, Oregon is 41/45, 34/49 among independents.

In Virginia, Democrats are avoiding being seen with Barack Obama, including Tim Kaine, the former DNC Chair, former Virginia Governor, current candidate for US Senate.

Missouri’s Democrat US Senator Claire McCaskill has decided she does not want to be seen with Barack Obama.

Barack Obama’s approval rating in New Hampshire has hit a new low at 41/53.

Barack Obama’s approval rating in Pennsylvania is 43/54, 41/57 among independents.

Barack Obama won Indiana and North Carolina with less than 50 percent of the vote each last time around, and his polling in those two states has fallen since then.

60 Democrat-selected and Republican-held “battleground” House districts favor Republicans even more now than they did in 2010.

It is possible Barack Obama could lose as many as 4 of the 5 “Northwest Territory” states after winning all 5 in 2008. It is further possible Barack Obama could lose New Hampshire and Maine, which he won in 2008. It is likely Barack Obama will lose North Carolina and Virginia, which he won in 2008. It is highly unlikely Obama can flip any of the states he lost in 2008 to his side.

Given the new post-2010 Census Electoral College distribution, if Barack Obama loses Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana and New Hampshire — a very distinct possibility, with current polling data — and the rest of the states remain as they were in 2008, Barack Obama slips into a 269-269 tie with the Republican and it’s then up to the US House of Representatives, where Republicans hold a strong majority.

And with Obama’s 50-state losses in approval ratings, his 50-state strategy will necessarily have to be pared down as he will have to work to ensure he keeps previously reliable “Blue” states in the fold and struggles to maintain the “Purple” states he won. The reliable “Red” states? He’ll have to all but write them off.

Posted in Elections, Obama, politics | Tagged: , , | Comments Off on Obama’s Electoral College Problem

 
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