Truth Before Dishonor

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CBS/Quinnipiac Agenda Driven Polling In Ohio

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2012/10/22


So, CBS News and Quinnipiac combined to generate an outrageously biased poll of Ohio voters. CBS/Quinnipiac is going to have to hurry up and un-bias its polling if they are wanting to use their “history of accuracy” when polling in the future. If they want reasonable people to think they’re Honorable.

CBS/Quinnipiac found Obama trailing among Ohio independents by seven points but somehow leading overall by five points and (barely) reaching the magical 50 percent barrier. Think about that. Among Republicans in the Buckeye State, Obama is absolutely gone. Among independents in the bellwether state (accurately picking the US President something like 27 times out of the last 29 elections, or 25 times out of the last 27, either way, that’s over 100 years of being a bellwether), Obama trails by 7. And yet, CBS/Quinnipiac has the audacity to declare Obama leads overall by 5. The numbers do not at all add up that way, unless CBS/Quinnipiac puts its left thumb on the scale. And that’s precisely what they did.

I’m inclined to think that Ohio is going to be close all the way to the election. But I’m also inclined to think that the electorate will be more than 26% Republican. That’s the sample in this poll, which has a laughable D/R/I of 35/26/34. In 2008 [link to CNN], the D/R/I was 39/31/30, while in 2010 [link to CBS] it was 36/37/28. We have plenty of data on enthusiasm in this election cycle, precisely none of which points to an 11-point drop in Republican participation in two years in this race.

Yet, with a D+9 advantage and Republicans only at 26% of the sample, Obama can only muster a 5-point lead in the topline. That was his margin of victory in 2008 in Ohio, by the way, but Obama won Ohio independents by eight points in that election. In this poll, he’s down seven points, a fifteen-point flip in the gap. That’s the most telling indicator thus far, and the one that cuts through the sampling biases.

In the Democrat wave of 2008, Republicans made up 31 percent of the Ohio vote. Absolutely all indicators are this is not a Democrat wave election, and yet, CBS/Quinnipiac has given Republicans a 5-point disadvantage from the 2008 Democrat wave election. All of the energy and tide is on the Republican side, none of it is on the Democrat side. Even in the horribly sampled CBS/Quinnipiac poll, Obama has lost 15 points among independents from his 2008 5-point victory in Ohio.

Looking at the actual numbers, and removing the agenda-driven CBS/Quinnipiac thumb from the scale, Obama trails by 3 or 4 in Ohio. And that is in line with Ohio’s over a century history of being a bellwether and national trending. And, as CBS/Quinnipiac noted, even in its D+9 poll that severely undersampled Republicans, Obama lost 10 combined points to Romney in 4 weeks in a state that Obama cannot afford to lose. And the trend is for Obama to further shed votes.

As a 44-year resident of the Buckeye State, I am rather pleased with the un-fudged Ohio data and the Ohio trend. I can smell doom and gloom (and panic) from the Socialists running the Democrat party from my new Texas home.

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