Presidential Polling: Breaking The 50 Percent Barrier
Posted by John Hitchcock on 2012/10/17
Gallup has a new poll out from data it collected from October 10 to October 16, showing the 50 percent barrier has been crossed. This is important because when an incumbent has less than 50 percent of the likely voters this late in the stage, that incumbent is in serious danger of being defeated — even if the incumbent has the lead in the polls. Because people who are undecided this late in the game break very heavily toward the challenger. The incumbent has a record, and that record has not convinced the undecided voter. What’s left?
So, when a poll with the clout of Gallup comes out and declares that 51 percent of likely voters have stepped up to the plate and declared they will be voting for Obama and 45 percent will be voting for Romney, leaving only 4 percent undecided, that means something major.
Wait, what? Oh, that’s right. Never mind. The Gallup poll of likely voters shows Romney with 51 percent of the vote, a clear majority, to Obama’s 45 percent to give Romney a 6 point lead. Nothing to see here. Move along.
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