Barack Obama And The Domino Effect
Posted by John Hitchcock on 2012/10/09
I previously reported about Obama going from +8 in a heavily skewed September Pew poll to -4 in an unskewed October Pew poll, going from +5 to a 47/47 tie with Gallup, going from +10 to +3 (with a 4-point margin of error) in Michigan, and dropping to only +2 in Pennsylvania. I followed that up by reporting that a Daily Kos-commissioned PPP poll showed Obama going from +4 to -2 in a week — in a poll that heavily over-represented Democrats and heavily under-represented independents, Rasmussen’s swing state poll (covering 11 states) showing Obama going from +6 to -2 in five days, and an ARG poll of Ohio voters which grossly over-represented Democrats while grossly under-representing independents (where Obama has lost 28 points(!) since 200) for a D+9 sample showing Obama -1.
The Suffolk University poll is pulling its pollsters from battleground states Virginia, North Carolina and Florida because Suffolk has deemed those states Obama losses. And Obama has already lost Indiana. That’s a done deal. If Obama were to lose Indiana, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia as the polls now suggest, he cannot lose a single other state if he wants to win re-election. But there are multiple other states where he could very easily lose. And 270 To Win’s user-interactive map shows only a 13 percent likelihood of an Obama win in that scenario (with a 6 percent likelihood of a tie), based on current polling data of the remaining 7 undecided states.
Yes, with the polls unskewing and the public seeing how disastrously bad Obama is against Romney (of course, in addition to the economy, the foreign policy disasters, Univision’s destruction of Obama’s Fast and Furious, the hatred of ObamaCare, etc, etc), the Domino Effect is very much happening. It’s entirely possible that Obama could win fewer than 16 states in November. And we could have a Republican President-elect before the Mountain Time Zone reports in (and Texas has a sliver in the Mountain Time Zone).
2 Responses to “Barack Obama And The Domino Effect”
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.