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Archive for October 9th, 2012

Barack Obama And The Domino Effect

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2012/10/09

I previously reported about Obama going from +8 in a heavily skewed September Pew poll to -4 in an unskewed October Pew poll, going from +5 to a 47/47 tie with Gallup, going from +10 to +3 (with a 4-point margin of error) in Michigan, and dropping to only +2 in Pennsylvania. I followed that up by reporting that a Daily Kos-commissioned PPP poll showed Obama going from +4 to -2 in a week — in a poll that heavily over-represented Democrats and heavily under-represented independents, Rasmussen’s swing state poll (covering 11 states) showing Obama going from +6 to -2 in five days, and an ARG poll of Ohio voters which grossly over-represented Democrats while grossly under-representing independents (where Obama has lost 28 points(!) since 200) for a D+9 sample showing Obama -1.

On the heels of all that news comes this next domino (via Hot Air, who got it from Gateway Pundit):


 

The Suffolk University poll is pulling its pollsters from battleground states Virginia, North Carolina and Florida because Suffolk has deemed those states Obama losses. And Obama has already lost Indiana. That’s a done deal. If Obama were to lose Indiana, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia as the polls now suggest, he cannot lose a single other state if he wants to win re-election. But there are multiple other states where he could very easily lose. And 270 To Win’s user-interactive map shows only a 13 percent likelihood of an Obama win in that scenario (with a 6 percent likelihood of a tie), based on current polling data of the remaining 7 undecided states.

Yes, with the polls unskewing and the public seeing how disastrously bad Obama is against Romney (of course, in addition to the economy, the foreign policy disasters, Univision’s destruction of Obama’s Fast and Furious, the hatred of ObamaCare, etc, etc), the Domino Effect is very much happening. It’s entirely possible that Obama could win fewer than 16 states in November. And we could have a Republican President-elect before the Mountain Time Zone reports in (and Texas has a sliver in the Mountain Time Zone).

Posted in Elections, media, Obama, politics | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Even More Bad Polling News For Obama

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2012/10/09

Late last night (cross-posted on The First Street Journal), I posted the very bad national polling news for Obama from Pew and Gallup and the bad polling news for Michigan and Pennsylvania. Today, we have even more bad polling news for Obama.

Daily Kos commissioned PPP (I know, I know, a nutball site commissioning a Leftist agenda-driven polling service) to poll the nation, and found Obama trailing Romney by two points. (Link to Hot Air, so it’s safe to click. Ed Morrissey links to DKos.) It’s a 6-point loss for Obama in a week in this poll. And then there’s the skewing:

The sample is a D+3, which is on its own a reasonable model for the turnout in four weeks, but the D/R/I is 40/37/23. That significantly undersamples independents, which becomes an issue when one sees how independents break out in the election. Romney has a six-point lead among independents, 48/42, and that low number for Obama will become a real problem in four weeks, as late deciders usually break hard for the challenger and away from the incumbent. Independents disapprove of Obama’s job performance by a wide margin, 34/55 (he’s at 43/53 in the overall survey), and the Democratic Party doesn’t fare well among indies either, with a 33/50 approval rating — which is, to be fair, about identical to how they view the GOP, too (33/51). By an even wider margin, likely independent voters believe the country is on the “wrong track,” 29/62. Those are not re-elect numbers for an incumbent who won independents by eight points in 2008.

Obama is completely collapsing among independent voters. And the severe undersample of independents requires a warning label: WARNING: Democrats in this mirror appear closer than they are.

Rasmussen’s swing state poll, covering eleven states Obama won, shows Obama losing 8 points in 5 days. As Ed Morrissey explains:

The tracking poll dropped the results from last Monday and added yesterday’s results. That is what produced the five-point swing, and it suggests that stronger results might be on the way, as the last two pre-debate results will drop out tomorrow and Wednesday. Obama had led in this tracking poll by as much as six points on October 1st and 4th, the latter the day after the debate and the last day with no debate-driven results. Obama’s lead went from 6 to 5, then to 3 and a few days at 2 before today’s reversal.

The states covered?

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Ed Morrissey reports on a heavily skewed Ohio poll that is even more bad news for Obama:

A new ARG poll shows Romney now leading Obama in Ohio, 48/47 — even with a D+9 sample. The D/R/I in this poll is 42/33/25; the 2008 election was 39/31/30; in 2010, it was 36/37/28. Among independents, Romney leads by 20 points, 57/37; Obama won them by 8 in Ohio in 2008, 52/44. I would assume that a proper balance that included more independents would extend Romney’s lead significantly.

That’s a 28-point Obama loss among independents in bellwether Ohio. Obama is trailing Romney by 1 in a poll that grossly oversamples Democrats and grossly undersamples Independents. A more accurate sampling of Ohio would have Obama trailing by several more points. And for the record, I spent 44 years of my life in Ohio. And I know, from my vast experience in Ohio, that Obama will not have the historically outsized Democrat-percentage turnout he garnered in 2008. It is not going to happen, folks.

The wheels on the Obama bus are falling off, which is karmic justice considering how many bodies those wheels have crushed over the last four years.

Posted in Elections, media, Obama, Ohio, politics, society | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

Five Truths Found On Facebook

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2012/10/09

From Our Country Deserves Better PAC:

It has been proven for over 400 years, in places like the old Soviet Union, China, Cuba, North Korea, Greece, and the Massachusetts Bay Colony that the above Socialist program leads to impoverishment and death by starvation. The Massachusetts Bay Colony tried the “spread the wealth around” idea and half its population died due to starvation. When they switched to “you keep what you make”, the colony grew greatly in wealth, becoming a net exporter of food. And did so in extremely short order.

So, you can choose the “death by starvation” route Obama and the Liberals (and Big Government Republicans) push — OR — you can choose the “keep what you make” route that has proven to lead the most people out of poverty and into wealth in the history of the world, the route our Founders and Framers set us on, the route the TEA Party Conservatives want us to return to.

The choice has never been so obvious, so stark, so cataclysmicly important as this election cycle. The future of America and the world really does depend on this election. The future of freedom, liberty, prosperity is riding in the balance. Freedom? Or death by starvation and permanent subservience to Big Brother/Nanny State?

Posted in Conservative, economics, Elections, history, Liberal, Obama, Personal Responsibility, Philosophy, politically correct, Politically Incorrect, politics, Socialists, society, TEA Party, truth | Tagged: , | Comments Off on Five Truths Found On Facebook

 
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