Truth Before Dishonor

I would rather be right than popular

Neck And Neck In Ohio?

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2012/09/25


Ohio is a true bellwether state, with a very long trend of voting for the guy that eventually is declared the winner in Presidential elections. You will likely never see a D+5 or R+5 D/R/I electorate in Ohio, as the state trends a much narrower +/-2 with a strong Independent voice generally speaking. If you see a poll that declares Obama leads by 8 in Ohio, for instance, you can throw that poll in the garbage bin. That sort of outcome will never happen in Ohio. So, there’s this new poll that Nice Deb found, showing a neck-and-neck race with Obama ahead 45.2 to 44.3 (and always remember when an incumbent cannot reach 50 percent, especially this late in the season, that incumbent is in trouble). Sounds about right for bellwether Ohio in a tight election year, no?

But there’s more to that poll. Nice Deb points out the heavy skewing of the poll itself. The D/R/I gives Democrats a +10.3 advantage in bellwether Ohio to arrive at a +0.9 for Obama. Nice Deb asks why the completely out of touch with reality Democrat skew for the poll. That’s a very good question. But I have a different observation. In order for the poll to give Obama a +0.9, it had to skew in favor of Democrats by +10.3. The polling firm had to give a huge, unrealistic Leftward advantage just to get Obama up to a tie with Romney/Ryan in bellwether Ohio. That means, Romney/Ryan pretty much have Ohio in the bag. And, as I pointed out, Ohio has a very long track record of voting for the winner, thus, Romney/Ryan will win in November.

Oh, as an aside, after the media-spun “very bad week” for Romney, Gallup moved him from -5 to even. Another “very bad week” for Romney and he might be +5.

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