Truth Before Dishonor

I would rather be right than popular

Look Out, Ohio: Obama Up By Five

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2012/09/10


That is, if you believe the notoriously partisan polling firm. And the notoriously partisan polling firm gets linked and quoted a lot, with a great many on the Left holding it as gospel. This notoriously partisan polling firm which the Left love has stated that Obama leads Romney by 5 in Ohio.

Professor Jacobson has asked why Conservatives even bother talking about Progressive Party Pollers (also known as Public Policy Polling or PPP) due to their notorious shady poll weighting. My answer to that question is in the lines of “you know the Left is in trouble when even they say it”. But this is not the case. Not this time. I previously noted PPP’s heavy weighting of its polls for Democrats in stark contrast to reality. Well, they’re doing it again.

The point about independents gets to the heart of the issue with this poll. The sample (pdf) has a D/R/I split of 41/37/22. The 37% that Republicans get in this survey matches their 2010 midterm turnout, which had a D/R/I of 36/37/28. The 41% for Democrats significantly exceeds that turnout, and also exceeds the 2008 election’s 39/31/30 exit polling that produced the five-point margin of Obama victory in the election.

There is a reason Ohio is a multi-generational Bellwether state. It’s because Ohio tends to have three-way parity in its voter turnout. But PPP is reporting out its polling as if Ohio were a Leftist bastion. And everyone who knows Ohio like I do, having lived there for 44 years, knows Ohio is nowhere near as Democrat as PPP claims. At all. Ohio will be less Democrat this year than four years ago. You can bank on that.

In 2008, Obama won Ohio by 5 points (just like this current PPP poll says he leads now). Obama also won the very large independent vote by 8 points. While PPP allows that Romney leads Independents by 2 points (a 10-point swing against Obama), PPP claims Obama maintains the same 5 point edge overall. Why? Because, while Republicans have a higher voter registration percentage today than in 2010 and Democrats have a lower voter registration percentage today than in 2008, Democrats will have 2 points more representation this election year than in 2008, despite the fact that opinion on Obama has tanked, despite the fact of the Conservative wave after wave after wave sweeping the country, despite all reality. And Independents will have 10 points fewer representation — in an Independent-heavy state — than in 2008.

If Independents have indeed swung 10 points away from Obama as PPP suggests (and who can believe even that after PPP proved themselves in the tank for the Democrat position?), then all is well in Ohio and November will see Obama lose that important state.

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