Truth Before Dishonor

I would rather be right than popular

Claire McCaskill Given Seven Months To Vacate Premises

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2012/06/08


The new polls are out and, like the previous polls, Claire McCaskill’s life in the US Senate is over. I don’t see any way McCaskill can win, short of massive vote fraud (and it is common knowledge that Republicans have to win by greater than the margin of Democrat fraud). The Republican Primaries have not taken place in Missouri yet, but Claire McCaskill trails all three Republicans by a large margin.

Incumbency is the closest thing to a man-made perpetual motion machine. Once a politician becomes an incumbent trying to get re-elected to the same office, the chances of that politician winning go up by large margins. At the same time, a poll’s undecided voters, by the very nature of being undecided with an incumbent running, tend to break hard for the challenger. The benefit of incumbency means the people already know your name (and some even know what you’re about), thus “undecided” is not where the incumbent finds his or her voters. This is why an incumbent who polls below 50 percent, even when leading a poll, is said to be at risk of losing.

And Claire McCaskill is having a difficult time staying above 40 percent, in fact falling below 40 percent against one of the three Republican challengers. While those numbers for the Democrat Senatrix are worrisome enough for Democrats, it is the numbers for the three Republican challengers that is the cinch-knot. Each of the three Republicans hit the 50 percent mark against the Incumbent Democrat.

Sarah Steelman (whom I am leaning toward endorsing) leads McCaskill 51 to 39, with 7 percent undecided.
John Brunner has a 51 to 41 lead, with 6 percent undecided.
Claire McCaskill has her best shot against Todd Akin, trailing the Republican 50 to 42 with 7 percent undecided.

As I said, incumbency has a decided advantage, but that advantage was already used before the undecideds get around to deciding. So McCaskill is roughly at her ceiling, especially when considering all three of the Republicans hoping to challenge her have already broken through the 50 percent mark.

So, Claire, you have seven months to vacate your DC office.

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