2012 Iowa Caucus Results

It’s over! Ron Paul takes an overwhelming, insurmountable lead!

Okay, enough of that nonsense. Today’s the day of the Iowa Caucuses (Hawkeye Caucii). As of 7:35pm local time, according to the Des Moines Register, only 1 of Iowa’s 1774 precincts have reported in.
Paul 46.2 (18 votes)
Perry 17.9 (7)
Romney 15.4 (6)
Santorum 15.4 (6)
Gingrich 5.1 (2)

Technical difficulties with my ability to update the Des Moines Register site have caused me to switch to a FOX News site.

As of 8:16pm local time, with 15 percent of the precincts reporting:
Paul 25 percent
Romney 24
Santorum 23
Gingrich 13
Perry 10
Bachmann 7
Huntsman less than 1
Cain less than 1

As of 8:24pm local time, 18 percent of the precincts have reported.
Paul 25
Romney 24
Santorum 23
Gingrich 14
Perry 10
Bachmann 6
Huntsman *
Cain *

As of 8:34pm local time, 25 percent reporting.
Romney 24
Santorum 23
Paul 23
Gingrich 14
Perry 11
Bachmann 6
Huntsman *
Cain *

Stories suggest that all the not-Romneys spent too much time beating each other up and not focusing on “why not Romney” to their detriment. Also, the Romney and Paul negative attack ads against Gingrich did a lot of damage.

As of 8:42pm local time, with 30 percent reporting:
Romney 24
Santorum 24
Paul 23
Gingrich 14
Perry 11
Bachmann 6
Huntsman *
Cain *

As of 9:00pm local time, with 41 percent reporting:
Romney 24
Santorum 24
Paul 23
Gingrich 14
Perry 10
Bachmann 6
Huntsman *
Cain *

As of 9:12pm local time, with 47 percent reporting:
Santorum 25 (13, 339)
Romney 24 (13,011)
Paul 22 (11,972)
Gingrich 14 (7,248)
Perry 11 (5,544)
Bachmann 6 (3,065)
Huntsman * (308)
Cain * (23)

After these results, Sarah Palin is right in calling for Michele Bachmann to withdraw and endorse one of the other Conservatives. Too bad, too, because after Palin, Bachmann was my next choice. Jon Huntsman, the Mitt Romney mini-me, needs to withdraw as well.

As of 9:36pm local time, with 53 percent reporting in, the percentages are unchanged. Santorum leads Romney by about 400 votes and leads Paul by about 1,360 votes.

As of 9:43pm local time, with 59 percent reporting in, the percentages seem to have stabilized. Santorum leads Romney by 600 and leads Paul by 1,800. Rick Perry trails Newt Gingrich’s 4th place position by 1,700 votes.

It seems I spoke too soon. As of 9:48pm local time, with 79 percent reporting in, Mitt Romney took a brief lead over Rick Santorum. As of 9:51pm local time, with 87 percent reporting in, that brief lead ended, but the percentages have changed slightly.
Santorum 25
Romney 25 (less than 50 votes behind)
Paul 22
Gingrich 14
Perry 11
Bachmann 6
Huntsman *
Cain *

As of 10:04pm local time, with 88 percent of the precincts reporting in, Santorum leads Romney 25 to 25 (29 votes separate the two). Apparently, a higher number of non-Republicans than normal are voting in the Iowa Republican Caucus, and roughly 60 percent of Paul’s votes are from non-Republicans, meaning roughly 12,000 Paul votes in the Republican Caucus come from other-than-Republican attendees.

As of 10:10pm local time, with 89 percent of the precincts reporting, Romney has retaken the lead over Santorum 25 to 25 (25 votes separate the two), while the remaining candidates are marking time percentage-wise. Since more than normal non-Republicans are voting in the Republican Caucus, I have to wonder how many non-Republican attendees have voted for the self-proclaimed Progressive Republican Romney. It is also important to point out that the Iowa Caucus is not a winner-take-all state. The delegates will be apportioned.

As of 10:24pm local time, with 92 percent of the precincts reporting, Santorum has retaken the lead over Romney 25 to 25 (72 votes separating the two), Ron Paul has 22 percent of the vote, with reportedly 60 percent of his 24,144 votes coming from non-Republicans. Newt Gingrich’s fourth place 14 percent leads Rick Perry’s 11 percent by 3,300 votes. Michele Bachmann is a distant sixth place with a mere 5,767 votes while mini-me Jon Huntsman has well under 1 percent at 668 votes.

As of 10:43pm local time, with 95 percent of the precincts reporting, Santorum leads Romney 25 to 25 (9 votes separate the two). Apparently roughly 26 percent of the attendees in the Republican Caucus are independents or Democrats, and roughly half of those voted for Paul. It really is time to close the Republican Caucuses and Primaries. Non-Republicans should not be able to vote for the Republican candidate.

As of 10:57pm local time, with 96 percent of the precincts reporting, Santorum continues to hold a slim 25 to 25 lead over Romney, with 113 votes separating the two.

As of 11:05pm local time, and back to the above Des Moines Register link, with 1714 of 1774 precincts reporting in, the tally is as follows:
Santorum 24.6 (29,210)
Romney 24.6 (29,173)
Paul 21.3 (25,307)
Gingrich 13.3 (15,722)
Perry 10.3 (12,194)
Bachmann 5.0 (5,934)
Huntsman 0.6 (712)
No Preference 0.1 (130)
Other 0.1 (114)
Cain 0.0 (57)

And Rick Perry has announced he’s returning to Texas to reassess his campaign while Michele Bachmann has declared she’s soldiering on.

As of 11:25pm local time, with 1744 of 1774 precincts reporting, Romney leads Santorum 24.6 to 24.5, with a 41 vote advantage, Paul (who got 60 percent of his total from non-Republicans and got half of all the non-Republican votes) trails Romney by 3,750 votes.

Good night everyone, thanks for stopping by.