Truth Before Dishonor

I would rather be right than popular

Obama’s Electoral College Problem

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/10/21


The 2008 Electoral College results from US Election Atlas.org:

Barack Obama’s approval in Ohio is under water, at 43/52, and even worse among independents, at 39/57, according to PPP (which is well known for its over-sampling of Democrats). What’s worse, Obama and Romney are tied at 46 percent each in head-to-head polling, and among the 8 percent of undecided voters, Obama’s approval rating is a myopic 18 percent. (HT The Other McCain)

Barack Obama’s approval rating in Illinois is barely over 50 percent and he can’t even reach the 50 percent level in head-to-head polling against the Republican challengers. And Democrat Governor Pat Quinn’s numbers are even worse than Obama’s, so it’s doubtful Obama will want to enlist the aid of the Democrat Governor of Illinois, who signed into law the state’s largest ever tax increases, killing jobs in the process.

Barack Obama’s approval rating in Florida is 39/57.

Barack Obama’s approval rating in New York State is 45/49 while his approval rating among Union households in New York State is 46/49. In New York – 9, Anthony Weiner’s old seat, which is 3/1 Democrat/Republican and has been a Democrat seat since 1921, the Republican won by tying the Democrat to Obama. The Occupy Wall Street mob who took over Zuccotti Park have enraged the local residents, possibly causing further harm to Democrat chances in the state.

Barack Obama’s approval rating in New Jersey is 44/52, 39/57 among independents, with 49 percent of New Jerseyites declaring Obama does not deserve to be re-elected.

Barack Obama’s approval rating in Portland, Oregon is 41/45, 34/49 among independents.

In Virginia, Democrats are avoiding being seen with Barack Obama, including Tim Kaine, the former DNC Chair, former Virginia Governor, current candidate for US Senate.

Missouri’s Democrat US Senator Claire McCaskill has decided she does not want to be seen with Barack Obama.

Barack Obama’s approval rating in New Hampshire has hit a new low at 41/53.

Barack Obama’s approval rating in Pennsylvania is 43/54, 41/57 among independents.

Barack Obama won Indiana and North Carolina with less than 50 percent of the vote each last time around, and his polling in those two states has fallen since then.

60 Democrat-selected and Republican-held “battleground” House districts favor Republicans even more now than they did in 2010.

It is possible Barack Obama could lose as many as 4 of the 5 “Northwest Territory” states after winning all 5 in 2008. It is further possible Barack Obama could lose New Hampshire and Maine, which he won in 2008. It is likely Barack Obama will lose North Carolina and Virginia, which he won in 2008. It is highly unlikely Obama can flip any of the states he lost in 2008 to his side.

Given the new post-2010 Census Electoral College distribution, if Barack Obama loses Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana and New Hampshire — a very distinct possibility, with current polling data — and the rest of the states remain as they were in 2008, Barack Obama slips into a 269-269 tie with the Republican and it’s then up to the US House of Representatives, where Republicans hold a strong majority.

And with Obama’s 50-state losses in approval ratings, his 50-state strategy will necessarily have to be pared down as he will have to work to ensure he keeps previously reliable “Blue” states in the fold and struggles to maintain the “Purple” states he won. The reliable “Red” states? He’ll have to all but write them off.

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