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Archive for October 4th, 2011

West Virginia Governor Special Election Results

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/10/04

The special election to fill Democrat Senator Joe Manchin’s unexpired term as West Virginia Governor was held today. The polls have closed and now comes the counting.

As of 7:58pm local time, the Associated Press has Democrat Acting Governor Tomblin leading 55 percent to Republican Mahoney’s 41 percent, with 6 of 1883 precincts reporting in.

As of 8:05pm local time, the Democrat holds a 60 percent to 37 percent lead. 33 of 1883 precincts reporting.

Early reporting of polling data suggested this race would end in a narrow single-digit victory. A Republican win would be considered an upset.

As of 8:09pm local time, the Democrat holds a 52 percent to 45 percent lead over the Republican. 53 of 1883 precincts reporting.

In the last weeks of the race, the Republican Governors Association pumped money into the race, running ads tying the Democrat to ObamaCare, noting the Democrat refused to sue the Federal Government as 26 other states did. The Republican promised to do just that, becoming the 27th state to sue. Polling data showed the advertising on this issue caused a major swing toward the Republican in the undecided voters.

As of 8:21pm local time, the Democrat leads 50 percent to 46 percent. 156 of 1883 precincts reporting.

West Virginia bucked the national trend in 2010 by maintaining a solid Democrat majority in the Legislature and voting for Democrat Joe Manchin to complete the late Senator Byrd’s (D) Senate term. This despite President Obama’s far below national average approval numbers in the Mountain State.

As of 8:27pm local time, Democrat Tomblin leads 53 percent to 44 percent with a 6,000 vote cushion. 310 precincts reporting.

As of 8:39pm local time, the Democrat leads 52 percent to 45 percent with an 8,000 vote margin. 583 of 1883 precincts reporting.

As of 8:42pm local time, the Democrat leads 51 percent to 45 percent with a 7,600 vote margin. 633 precincts reporting.

As of 8:51pm local time, the Democrat leads 50 percent to 47 percent with a 5,800 vote margin. 913 of 1883 precincts reporting.

West Virginia has not had a Republican Governor since Cecil H Underwood completed his term January 15, 2001.

As of 8:57pm local time, Tomblin, the Democrat leads 51 percent to 46 percent with an 8,600 vote margin. 1062 of 1883 precincts reporting.

As of 9:06pm local time, the AP has called it for Tomblin. The Democrat leads 50 percent to 46 percent with a 9,500 vote cushion. 1307 of 1883 precincts reporting. The 3 independent candidates, representing minor parties have so far combined for fewer than 8,000 votes.

As of 9:12pm local time, the Democrat leads 50 percent to 47 percent with a 7,800 vote cushion. 1396 of 1883 precincts reporting. The 3 independent candidates combined nearly cover the spread but fall short by a handful of votes.

As of 9:18pm local time, the Democrat leads 49 percent to 47 percent with a 6,000 vote margin. 1570 of 1883 precincts reporting.

As of 9:27pm local time, the Democrat leads 49 percent to 47 percent with a 6,000 vote margin. 1600 of 1883 precincts reporting.

Democrats hold a nearly 2 to 1 voter registration advantage over Republicans in the Mountain State.

As of 9:36pm local time, the Democrat leads 49 percent to 47 percent. 1714 of 1883 precincts reporting.

The unofficial tally so far:
Tomblin (D, incumbent) 133,983
Maloney (R) 127,765
Baber (Mountain) 5,519
Ingels (Independent) 2,634
Bertram (Other) 1,034

As of 9:43pm local time, the Democrat leads 50 percent to 47 percent with a 7,400 vote gap. 1776 precincts reporting.

As of 9:52pm local time, the Democrat leads 50 percent to 47 percent. 1777 of 1883 precincts reporting. Scanning the County list for unreported precincts, they all appear to be in counties carried by the Democrat.

As of 10:04pm local time, the Democrat leads 50 percent to 47 percent with a 7,900 vote margin. 1807 of 1883 precincts reporting. The three lesser candidates have combined for 9,600 votes.

Polling during the race showed the race tightened very noticeably when the Republicans put on a late push to tie the Democrat to Obama and ObamaCare. In a state that has a 2 to 1 Democrat registration advantage, the late push to tie the Democrat to Obama made the race far tighter than it would’ve been otherwise. Had the Republicans focused on ObamaCare and the Democrat’s refusal to sue the Federal Government over the unconstitutionality of its implementation earlier than they had, the end results may have been different.

Hopefully, the Republicans see how much damage ObamaCare does to State-level Democrat candidates and starts the push earlier on in future races.

As of 10:13pm local time, the Democrat leads 50 percent to 47 percent. 1868 of 1883 precincts reporting.

Precincts not reporting currently:
Braxton County (1) Democrat leads 59 to 38
Nicholas County (11) Democrat leads 50 to 45
Taylor County (3) Republican leads 50 to 47

As of 10:28pm local time, the Democrat leads 50 percent to 47 percent. 1871 of 1883 precincts reporting.

The unofficial tally to this point:
Tomblin (D, incumbent) 149,909
Maloney (R) 142,197
Baber (Mountain) 6,058
Ingels (Independent) 2,854
Bertram (Other) 1,108

As of 10:34pm local time, all 1883 precincts have reported. The final unofficial tally shows the Democrat won 50 percent to 47 percent.

By the unofficial numbers:
Tomblin (D, incumbent) 150,732
Maloney (R) 142,889
Baber (Mountain) 6,119
Ingels (Independent) 2,867
Bertram (Other) 1,111

Senator Joe Manchin (D – WV) should now know for certain his path to re-election in November, 2012 is by guaranteeing enough separation between himself and the Obama Administration that any attempt to tie him to Obama fails.

Thus ends my live-blogging updates.

Posted in Elections, politics | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

Circumcision Bans Outlawed In California

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/10/04

HT The Other McCain
The Miami Herald excerpts the Sacramento Bee in reporting that it is now illegal in the State of California for any county or city to ban male circumcision.

Gov. Jerry Brown has signed a bill prohibiting cities and counties from banning male circumcision, his office announced today.

Assembly Bill 768 by Assemblyman Mike Gatto, D-Los Angeles, was inspired by a San Francisco ballot measure designed to prohibit child circumcision there. A judge in July ordered the circumcision ban off the November ballot, but Gatto’s bill proceeded through the Legislature, where it passed with unanimous votes.

Gatto argued that such bans were an affront to the exercise of “personal, medical and religious freedom.”

The San Diego-based anti-Semitic group that was leading the charge to outlaw male circumcision in San Fransisco — and produced multiple evil anti-Semitic comics in that endeavor — hardest hit.

Anti-Semites, do you like apples? Well, California got your number. How do you like them apples?

Posted in Christianity, Conservative, Health Care, Judaism, Law, Liberal, Personal Responsibility, Philosophy, politics, race, Religion, society | Tagged: , , , | 3 Comments »

South Carolina Primary, Nevada Caucus Move Up

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/10/04

RS McCain has reported the news that the South Carolina Primary will be held on January 21, ahead of the leap-frogging Florida Primary (January 31), and Nevada has tied their Caucus to be held the week following the New Hampshire Primary. This as a result of Florida moving their Primary up at a cost of half their delegates. RS McCain declared that’s exactly what would happen. So did I. And so did The Underground Conservative.

Tina Korbe writes:

South Carolina became the first of the four early voting states to officially move its primary ahead of Florida’s contest, which, as of last Friday, is set for Jan. 31. South Carolina GOP Chairman Chad Connelly this morning announced the decision to move the Palmetto State’s primary to Jan. 21.

“Last Friday, a nine-person committee brought chaos to the 2012 calendar,” his statement read. “Today, South Carolina is making things right.”

South Carolina is also forcing Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada to schedule their primaries even earlier. New Hampshire will be next to decide, as Nevada party rules require the Nevada primary to take place four days after New Hampshire and Iowa state law requires the Iowa caucuses to occur at least eight days before the next contest. New Hampshire’s likely looking at Jan. 3, 10 or 17. If the state selects Jan. 17, Nevada and South Carolina will fall on the same day. But if NH chooses the earliest date — Jan. 3 — that’ll push the Iowa caucuses into December of this year.

Florida knew this would happen, and South Carolina is peeved, as to be expected. In fact, as RS McCain notes, this was Florida’s intention all along.

This is incredible! In a Facebook message to “Sunshine State Sarah,” Speaker Cannon admits what the Florida GOP is doing:

I’ll describe what happened in 2008 as the best proof that the threats of calamity in [Florida RNC member Paul] Paul’s letter are unfounded. In 2008, Iowa went Jan 3, NH went Jan 8, MI on Jan 15, NV and SC on Jan19, Florida went Jan 29, and FL had huge, arguably decisive influence. Twenty six states then held their primaries the next week on Feb 5–the “super Tuesday”–and it was over.

That is to say, Cannon and the Florida GOP are trying to guarantee a repeat of the preposterously early decision in 2008! And this disaster (which gave the nomination to John McCain) Cannon cites as proof that a front-loaded primary calendar in 2012 won’t produce a “calamity”!

The Florida Establishment Republicans — who wanted a Senator Charlie Crist instead of Senator Marco Rubio — are intentionally front-loading the Primary season to end it early. Because they don’t want a non-Establishment type to horn in on their game. The Establishment Republicans hate the TEA Party just as much as the Democrats do. But they’re in for a rude awakening as We the People are still fighting mad at both Ruling Class parties, and Establishment Republican Incumbents will be Primaried out of their jobs.

Posted in Conservative, Elections, Philosophy, politically correct, politics, TEA Party, war | Tagged: , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Obama A Drag On WV Gov Race

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/10/04

Another day, another special election where the Republican ties Obama to the Democrat, dragging the Democrat down. This time it is in West Virginia, where the Republican is tying the Democrat to ObamaCare. And it has caused the undecided voters to swing heavily for the Republican. Both sides of the race have stated the Republican Governors Association ads tying the Democrat to implementation of ObamaCare have tightened up the race.

What should’ve been a standard issue Democrat win, with Acting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin (D) filling the unexpired term of former Governor Manchin (D), who the Mountain State sent to Washington, DC to fill the unexpired term of the late Senator Byrd (D) has now become a close race, all due to the Obama Factor. As Aaron Blake at the Washington Post notes, should Republican Bill Maloney win today, it will be an upset.

Democrats now expect the race to be decided by a margin in the low single-digits, while Republicans hold out hope that they can pull off what would be a pretty significant upset but say that have nothing to lose, given the state’s heavily Democratic — if conservative — tilt.

It would indeed be a significant upset because, even as Republicans made big gains elsewhere in 2010, West Virginia stuck by its Democratic roots and returned large Democratic majorities to its state legislature, along with sending Manchin to Washington, despite national Republicans’s best efforts to beat him. And gubernatorial races, which are often decided on state issues rather than national ones, are more insulated from the national winds.

What Republicans have done, though, is transformed the national issue that is Obama’s health care bill into a state one. And given Obama’s approval rating in the state — which has stood in the low-30s for some time — that could be a winning strategy.

Julie Sobel and Sean Sullivan at National Journal add:

Hot-button federal issues aren’t typically at the center of governor’s races. But in West Virginia, businessman Bill Maloney and national Republicans are tying acting Democratic Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin to President Obama late in the race on the president’s signature health care plan. And the issue is likely to surface again in 2012’s most competitive governors’ races. In some places, it already has.

Unlike other issues that have roiled special elections this year — Rep. Paul Ryan’s budget plan, the debate over raising the federal debt ceiling — the states have a role to play in the ongoing battle over the health care law. Twenty-six have joined a legal challenge to the law, and the Republican Governors Association’s final ad in West Virginia focuses on Tomblin’s refusal to join the protest.

Maloney is spending the final stretch arguing that Tomblin’s inaction against Obama’s health care plan is a major reason voters should take a stand against him. “He said early on he didn’t like Obamacare, but now he seems to be okay with it,” Maloney said of Tomblin in an interview with National Journal after a Lincoln Day Dinner appearance in Harrisville. “I’m going to sue, and we’re going to be the 27th state to sue and try to get rid of Obamacare. He’s not going to do that. So that’s a stark difference right there.”

They go on to recite a list of other states where Democrat Governors are being tied to ObamaCare with good results — for the Republicans. It will definitely be an issue in the 2012 Governor, Senate, House, Presidential races, and it will definitely be a drag on all Democrats that are tied to it. Obama and ObamaCare will most certainly cost many Democrats elections.

Pass the popcorn.

Posted in Conservative, Elections, Health Care, Liberal, Obama, Over-regulation, Philosophy, politics, society | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

 
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