Truth Before Dishonor

I would rather be right than popular

Maligning Rick Perry

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/09/12

Can we please agree to leave that in the capable hands of the Democrats and mainstream media (which are one and the same)? Let’s have our differences of opinion and let’s base those differences of opinion on facts about our various candidates’ positions and records. But let’s cut out the trash talk and leave that to the Leftists and mainstream media (which are one and the same).

I am not a Rick Perry supporter. I am a Sarah Palin supporter. And since Truth Before Dishonor is mine, Truth Before Dishonor has already endorsed Sarah Palin for President. But Dana Pico, an author here, has endorsed Rick Perry on this very site. And I very clearly said then that I don’t need the trashing of Rick Perry or their supporters in that thread. I gave my opinion on things I don’t like but also gave my opinion on things I do like about my third choice. And I based it on historical record.

Over at Hot Air, yesterday’s Quotes of the Day article was about Rick Perry’s truthful statement that Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme and the fact he won’t back down from that truthful statement. But like all long comment threads, it devolved into something else. And I want to get past the lamest of circular firing squad malignings and get to the phony math that one commenter in particular used in his poorly thought out maligning of Governor Perry’s record.

As of 8/31/01 (the end of the 2001 fiscal year, the last for which George W. Bush exercised budgetary authority), outstanding debt of the State of Texas totaled $12.561 billion.

Below is a summary of outstanding debt at the end of each fiscal year under Perry’s authority.

2002: $14.824 billion (18% increase year-over-year)
2003: $15.973 billion (8% increase)
2004: $17.555 billion (10% increase)
2005: $19.377 billion (10% increase)
2006: $21.011 billion (8% increase)
2007: $24.244 billion (15% increase)
2008: $27.996 billion (15% increase)
2009: $31.780 billion (14% increase)
2010: $35.692 billion (12% increase)

2001 – 2010
Debt growth: 184.2% (12.3% per year)
Inflation: 18.7% (1.9% per year)
Population growth: 18.2% (1.9% per year)
Debt growth in excess of inflation and population growth: 147.3% (10.6% per year)

The effect of the 2001 amendment allowing the DOT to issue debt was seen in the 18% increase in the State’s debt between 2001 and 2002. However, DOT debt hardly accounts for the 184.2% total increase in the State’s debt during Perry’s governorship.

steebo77 on September 12, 2011 at 2:22 AM

Texas expenditures, 2001: $38.834 billion
Texas expenditures, 2010: $80.181 billion

Increase in expenditures, 2001-2010: 106.5% (8.4% per year)
Inflation, 2001-2010: 18.7% (1.9% per year)
Population growth, 2001-2010: 18.2% (1.9% per year)
Increase in expenditures in excess of inflation and population growth: 69.6% (6.0% per year)

steebo77 on September 12, 2011 at 2:30 AM

Let’s start with some basic math, shall we? A percentage increase in anything over 10 years does not break down into 1/10th of the percentage increase per year. The basic Law of Compounding covers that, so all the “per year” bits are very much wrong. Next up, some basic algebra. You cannot add unlike items. 2a + 3b =! 5ab. Growth in “inflation” plus growth in “people” does not equal growth in “inflation people”. Again, dealing with that math problem, the Law of Compounding comes into play. Growth in inflation plus growth in people plus growth in inflation with the people growth will come closer to the truth.

Now for some “inflation” talk. Back when Carter (the worst President since the 1940s until Obama surpassed him and became the worst President ever) was President, food and energy were part of the metric in determining inflation. Since then, those two items — which increase in cost much faster than the rate of inflation — were removed from the official inflation rate, thereby artifically lowering the actual inflation rate. That right there puts a hammerlock on Budget v Inflation. But let’s continue. Healthcare expenses always increase faster than inflation. And State Budgets must account for Medicaid (which is a healthcare expense that always increases faster than inflation), a Federally mandated State expense. Education expenses increase much faster than inflation. And State Budgets must account for education expenses. And States use energy, which increases faster than inflation. All of these points, compounded by population growth, illegal immigrant population growth, the Law of Compounding, drive a rather large hole in Budget v Inflation.

Now, Steebo77 likely bungled his way into his failed-math maligning of Rick Perry, but that would make him an unwilling failed-math willing maligner. I have said before, and I continue to believe, Rick Perry is a Big State Government Bell Curve Tenther, but I will not use multiple-stage bad math in an attempt to destroy Rick Perry, a man who would do a lot to help the US recover from the Socialism of today’s Democrat Party machine and Ruling Class, Inside-The-Beltway Republicans.

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