Truth Before Dishonor

I would rather be right than popular

Obama Polling New Lows (with RDI and more)

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/09/06


Tina Korbe quotes Michael O’Brien from The Hill:

Forty-four percent of Americans said they approve of the way Obama is doing his job, while 51 percent disapprove of the president, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted late last week.

Those numbers set a new low mark for Obama’s unpopularity in the NBC/WSJ poll, as did the president’s poll numbers in an ABC/Washington Post poll released Tuesday. [pdf] Forty-three percent of Americans approved of Obama’s job performance in that poll, while 53 percent said they disapprove of Obama.

Obama’s poor ratings appear to stem from deep dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy, as disapproval of his economic management soared to new highs in both the NBC/WSJ and ABC/WashPost polls. Fifty-nine percent of Americans disapproved on how Obama is handling the economy in the NBC poll, while 62 percent said the same in the ABC poll.

The dismal numbers raise the stakes for Obama’s jobs speech Thursday evening before a joint-session of Congress. A report Friday that showed that the economy added no new jobs in August already established just how much the president has riding on the speech.

Tina Korbe had a lot to say, tying these recent polls to Obama’s upcoming “jobs” electioneering Congressional Address, and if you haven’t read it, I strongly urge you to do so. But this isn’t about Obama’s electioneering Congressional Address. Hot Air readers are very politically astute and know very well to not trust polls at face value, so a question was raised about the cross-tabs involved in the polling data. I was very interested in that myself, so I did some digging into the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. Needless to say, I found some interesting numbers. You’ll have to wait to the end to find the RDI weighting and similar data. First, a couple poll questions I found interesting (among other interesting poll questions).

Question 23:

Now, which of the following best describes how you would feel if [Barack Obama] were elected president — optimistic and confident that he would do a good job, satisfied and hopeful that he would do a good job, uncertain and wondering whether he would do a good job, or pessimistic and worried that he would do a good job?

And the results (August 2011/November 2008/October 2008):
Optimistic and Confident 23/34/28
Satisfied and Hopeful 23/24/29
Uncertain and Wondering 14/16/19
Pessimistic and Worried 40/25/23
Not Sure 0/1/1

Note the collapse in optimism in Obama’s ability to do a good job as President and the very strong rise in pessimism in Obama’s ability to do a good job as President between 2008 and 2011.

Question 28:

Which of the following two statements comes closer to your point of view?

Statement A: The President and the Congress should worry more about boosting the economy even though it may mean larger budget deficits now and in the future.

Statement B: The President and the Congress should worry more about keeping the budget deficit down even though it may mean it will take longer for the economy to recover.

First, note the Leftist/Keynesian false premise tied into this question. For me, this qualifies as a push-poll question. But even with the Leftist/Keynesian false premise tied in, the results are very informative.

. . .. 8/11 6/11 6/10 10/09 9/09 6/09
Stat A. 38 .. 31 . 34 . . 31 . 30 . 35
Stat B. 56 .. 63 . 63 . . 62 . 62 . 58
Depends 2 . . 1 .. 0 . .. 3 .. 4 .. 2
Unsure . 4 . . 5 .. 3 . .. 4 .. 4 .. 5

So, while Obama and the Democrats continue to push for more budget-busting spending, and Obama will most definitely demand Republicans do more budget-busting spending in his upcoming electioneering Congressional Address, the US public has, for over two years, overwhelmingly declared it is more important to get the Federal Budget in line than it is to deficit-spend for some supposed “stimulus”. And I do hope Obama and the Democrats continue with their spend-spend-spend/borrow-borrow-borrow/print-print-print mantra. Because that’s precisely what the majority of Americans do not want.

But on to the R/D/I, shall we? Because I suspect that’s what most of you have tuned in to see. But first, some historical data as a reference point. According to ABC News 2008 exit polling, the R/D/I was 32/39/29 and again according to ABC News 2010 exit polling, the R/D/I was 38/34/29 (note: “or something else” was Independent here). Note the major swing in exit polling R/D/I from 2008 to 2010. So, what did the WSJ/NBC R/D/I look like? Well…

Strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Not Very Strong Democrat . . . . 13
Independent, Lean Democrat . . . 8
Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Independent, Lean Republican . . 10
Not Very Strong Republican . . . . . 11
Strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . 13
Other (volunteered) . . . . . . . . 10

Breaking it down into R/D/I (with “Other” as strictly Independent) first with all Independents grouped together, it comes up 24/31/45. Factoring in the leaners, the R/D/I comes out 34/39/27, which is very much in line with the 2008 exit polling and completely ignores the major shift in the 2010 exit polling. But that’s not all. QF1a identified the poll respondents as 84 Registered, 15 Not Registered, 1 Not Sure, thus making the poll “of all adults” which notoriously benefits Democrats. And QF1b/c only amplifies that Democrat weighting of the poll.

Voted for Obama .. 43
Voted for McCain . 34
Voted for Other . . 4
Not Sure . . . . . . . 2
Did Not Vote . . . .. 17

That is a decidedly heavier-than-election benefit for Obama, as can be seen in the actual outcome, where Obama won by 7 percent and “Other” combined for only 1.53 percent.

So, what to take from the WSJ/NBC poll and further data? Obama is severely underwater in the polling data, and has reached new lows. The Democrat/Obama agenda of gargantuan deficit spending has been opposed by a clear majority for over two years. And the polling data is clearly weighted in a manner that actually benefits Obama. So the real numbers are actually far worse.

4 Responses to “Obama Polling New Lows (with RDI and more)”

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