Truth Before Dishonor

I would rather be right than popular

Barack Obama’s Election Travails

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/08/18


As everyone who follows politics knows, the coast of California, Oregon, Washington along with Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York and the vast majority of New England are staunchly in Democrat territory. But it might surprise a few politicos to find out Obama’s underwater politically in some of that territory.

Howard Portnoy reported, regarding a Quinnipiac poll:

For the first time since President Obama took the oath of office, his disapproval rating among Empire State residents is higher than his approval rating. Of 1,640 registered voters queried in the survey, 45% said they approve of the job the president is doing, while 49% said they disapprove.

The findings represent a sharp turnaround from June, when Obama’s approval rating among New Yorkers was in very positive territory, 57% against 38%.

In the 2008 presidential election, Obama carried New York with 63% of the vote.

Obama is even underwater 46/49 among New York state Union households. Looking at the demographic breakdown, the poll was of 1640 registered voters which means, while the total number is sufficiently high for accuracy, the poll itself has a slight Leftward tilt because a registered voter poll tilts to the left of a likely voter turnout due to the greater likelihood of Republicans voting than Democrats. Beyond that, the R/D/I was 22/40/31. As I don’t know the actual voter breakdown or trends for New York, I’ll accept it as accurate for argument’s sake. The M/F breakdown is 47/53, and Obama polled above water with women. The age breakdown appears to be too heavily weighted to younger registered voters from my perspective. So, Obama is likely even further underwater in NY than this poll shows.

Meanwhile, Ed Morrissey follows up with more bad news for Obama from another Quinnipiac poll.

President Barack Obama is headed in the wrong direction as New Jersey voters disapprove 52 – 44 percent of the job he is doing, down from a 50 – 46 percent positive score June 21 and the president’s lowest score ever in the Garden State.

Again, the gender gap is huge as men disapprove 60 – 37 percent while women approve 51 – 44 percent. Turning thumbs down on Obama are Republicans 93 – 6 percent and independent voters 57 – 39 percent. Democrats approve 77 – 17 percent. …

New Jersey voters say 49 – 45 percent that Obama does not deserve to be reelected, but say 45 – 37 percent that they would vote for Obama over an unnamed Republican challenger in the 2012 presidential race.

And Morrissey piles on with an update:

This Survey USA poll in Portland, Oregon doesn’t bode well for Obama, either. In a deep-blue West Coast city like Portland, Obama’s favorability rating is … 41/45. Among independents, it’s 34/49, and it’s only 67/18 among Democrats. Obama manages to be underwater among both men and women, too.

Adding insult to injury, RS McCain hits on the Left-on-Left attackfest in a linktastic article that has a rather large blockquote showing same.

Now, is it likely Obama could lose New York, New Jersey and Oregon to the Republican challenger? Anything’s possible but I highly doubt it. But it does mean Obama will have to spend time, money, and campaign footsoldiers in otherwise “safe” states just to keep them in the fold. And if he’s hurting in the “safe” states, he’s really hurting in the Bellweather states.

Obama has been shedding independent voters to the eventual Republican like nobody’s business. He’s also shedding independent voters to the “stay home” crowd. And the radical Left lemmings, being fed by the radical Left leaders who have lost all Hope in “the one” they “have been waiting for,” are in danger of sitting this one out, too. So, Obama has to spend more money trying to keep his base in line and energized because they are falling out of line and just plain falling out. But that could well be another problem in itself.

As practically everyone watching politics knows, Obama had a goal of raising a cool billion dollars to campaign in 2012. As Ed Morrissey points out, that goal has apparently fallen to 750 million, and Obama’s in danger of not even reaching that. And the Union money may not be as strong, either, as the Unions have spent tens of millions fighting (and losing) Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Tennessee and other states — while losing Union dues with which to fight. Beyond that, many businesses that spent money getting Obama elected have decided to spend their money on Republicans.

One Response to “Barack Obama’s Election Travails”

  1. […] polling numbers in New York and New Jersey are also alarming — to Democrats. Many Democrats have already made it clear they do not want […]

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