Truth Before Dishonor

I would rather be right than popular

Voter Turnout Predicts Vote Results

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2009/01/28


There are many predictors examined to project results from votes. One of those predictors is overall turnout. How many people actually went out to vote? A low turnout is a predictor that Republicans will have a strong showing while a high turnout is a predictor that Democrats will be more successful.

Why does the turnout serve as such a predictor? I have my own experience-based theory. In all my jobs I’ve had, I’ve met large numbers of people. As a former over-the-road truck driver, I met thousands of people. As a former factory worker, I got to know a few hundred people much more closely. In my time in various positions in the workforce, I spent a good deal of time talking politics. The vast majority of people I talked with had a commonality: “I don’t really get into politics.” These people with that commonality had another commonality. They generally parroted the mainstream news headlines and talking points.

I even had one person who didn’t trust any politician for anything — “they’re all the same; corrupt, all of them” — tell me he was Democrat because the only thing Republicans do is raise taxes and spend money willy-nilly. He thought Republicans were the tax-and-spenders! Can you imagine that? There was no debating with him. Facts and history were all dismissed with a wave of the hand.

“You haven’t told me why turnout is a predictor.” With so many people choosing not to “be into politics,” there are a great many people who have chosen to be uninformed or ill-informed. Those who choose to be well-informed, or those who choose to be very interest in politics will always vote. Those who choose to not “be into politics” will sometimes vote. And therein lies the difference. The highly informed will vote out of knowledge and understanding while the uninformed will vote out of propaganda and will depend on mainstream media’s headlines to give them accurate information. Of course, the informed know mainstream media is never accurate in regards to anything politic.

So with a low turnout, we have a higher saturation of truly informed individuals. But with a high turnout, we have a very diluted pool of truly informed individuals. And it is that diluted pool Democrats depend on. Because if truth were to win out, Democrats would fail every test.

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