Late last night (cross-posted on The First Street Journal), I posted the very bad national polling news for Obama from Pew and Gallup and the bad polling news for Michigan and Pennsylvania. Today, we have even more bad polling news for Obama.
Daily Kos commissioned PPP (I know, I know, a nutball site commissioning a Leftist agenda-driven polling service) to poll the nation, and found Obama trailing Romney by two points. (Link to Hot Air, so it’s safe to click. Ed Morrissey links to DKos.) It’s a 6-point loss for Obama in a week in this poll. And then there’s the skewing:
The sample is a D+3, which is on its own a reasonable model for the turnout in four weeks, but the D/R/I is 40/37/23. That significantly undersamples independents, which becomes an issue when one sees how independents break out in the election. Romney has a six-point lead among independents, 48/42, and that low number for Obama will become a real problem in four weeks, as late deciders usually break hard for the challenger and away from the incumbent. Independents disapprove of Obama’s job performance by a wide margin, 34/55 (he’s at 43/53 in the overall survey), and the Democratic Party doesn’t fare well among indies either, with a 33/50 approval rating — which is, to be fair, about identical to how they view the GOP, too (33/51). By an even wider margin, likely independent voters believe the country is on the “wrong track,” 29/62. Those are not re-elect numbers for an incumbent who won independents by eight points in 2008.
Obama is completely collapsing among independent voters. And the severe undersample of independents requires a warning label: WARNING: Democrats in this mirror appear closer than they are.
The tracking poll dropped the results from last Monday and added yesterday’s results. That is what produced the five-point swing, and it suggests that stronger results might be on the way, as the last two pre-debate results will drop out tomorrow and Wednesday. Obama had led in this tracking poll by as much as six points on October 1st and 4th, the latter the day after the debate and the last day with no debate-driven results. Obama’s lead went from 6 to 5, then to 3 and a few days at 2 before today’s reversal.
The states covered?
The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Ed Morrissey reports on a heavily skewed Ohio poll that is even more bad news for Obama:
A new ARG poll shows Romney now leading Obama in Ohio, 48/47 — even with a D+9 sample. The D/R/I in this poll is 42/33/25; the 2008 election was 39/31/30; in 2010, it was 36/37/28. Among independents, Romney leads by 20 points, 57/37; Obama won them by 8 in Ohio in 2008, 52/44. I would assume that a proper balance that included more independents would extend Romney’s lead significantly.
That’s a 28-point Obama loss among independents in bellwether Ohio. Obama is trailing Romney by 1 in a poll that grossly oversamples Democrats and grossly undersamples Independents. A more accurate sampling of Ohio would have Obama trailing by several more points. And for the record, I spent 44 years of my life in Ohio. And I know, from my vast experience in Ohio, that Obama will not have the historically outsized Democrat-percentage turnout he garnered in 2008. It is not going to happen, folks.
The wheels on the Obama bus are falling off, which is karmic justice considering how many bodies those wheels have crushed over the last four years.