Truth Before Dishonor

I would rather be right than popular

New Hampshire Threatens Early December Primary

Posted by John Hitchcock on 2011/10/13


As I said previously, Florida’s decision to move their Primary up from March to January was strictly an attempt to maintain Ruling Class Establishment Republican rule and prevent anyone from outside the Ruling Class from getting name recognition and traction. The early Primary and Caucus states would, and have, moved their dates ahead of Florida. And now New Hampshire is threatening the possibility of a December 6 Primary if Nevada doesn’t move their Caucuses from January 14 to January 17 or later.

RS McCain quotes Molly Ball:

CONCORD, N.H. — New Hampshire’s primary could be held as early as Dec. 6, 2011, Secretary of State William Gardner warned today.

In a statement issued Wednesday afternoon, Garnder, who sets the date, said that if Nevada sticks with its current plan to hold a caucus on Jan. 14, “I cannot rule out the possibility of a December primary.”
Gardner wants Nevada to accept a date of Jan. 17 or later in order to keep the 2012 primaries from spilling into 2011. But if it does not, he said, “The dates of Tuesday, December 13th, and Tuesday, December 6th are realistic options, and we have logistics in place to make either date happen if needed.”

And RS McCain continues to hammer away at the “corrupt jackals who run the Florida GOP” (and I agree fully with the description) as being the ones wholly to blame for this chaotic fiasco.

Just to remind you: Florida is to blame for all of this, as I have been warning since Sept. 28. The corrupt jackals who run the Florida GOP did this evil thing for their own selfish reasons, in contravention of RNC rules to which they had agreed. Their disastrous decision to move the Florida primary from March to Jan. 31 was undertaken with the approval of – and quite possibly under orders from — Florida GOP Chairman Lenny Curry, reputed to be a close ally of the Crist-like RINO Senate candidate George LeMieux.

Furthermore, the top Republicans in the Florida state legislature were all in on it.

South Carolina Republicans also have placed the blame squarely on the Florida Ruling Class Establishment Republicans’ shoulders, and South Carolina is none too pleased.

And if New Hampshire moves its ‘First in the Nation’ Primary to December 6, Iowa will move its Hawkeye Caucii up to late November. And the whole outrageous anti-grass-roots over-the-top front-loading is all due to the arrogance of Ruling Class Establishment Republicans in Florida, who in 2010 tried to foist a Senator Crist on Floridians but failed spectacularly when the grass-roots chose the Conservative Cuban-American Marco Rubio instead of the squish-tastic Ruling Class Establishment Republican-turned-Independent Charlie “orange is beautiful” Crist.

The RNC declared any state moving its Primary or Caucuses up ahead of February 6 would lose half its delegates. Florida knew that when it moved its Primary to January 31, forcing the early states to move theirs up as well. So now, Florida, South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa will all lose half their delegates as a result of Florida’s egregious actions. Does that help the Florida Ruling Class Establishment Republicans’ favorite candidate, Mitt “three positions on every issue” Romney? Not exactly.

Allahpundit reports on polling numbers that show Romney isn’t gaining any ground against the Conservative base.

In case you thought the PPP poll was a fluke, rest assured that he really is the frontrunner now.

In the previous survey, conducted in late August, Perry led the field at 38 percent, Romney stood at 23 percent, while Cain was at only 5 percent.

Cain’s numbers are sky-high among Republican primary voters. Fifty-two percent view him favorably, versus just 6 percent who see him unfavorably. Among Tea Party supporters, his favorable/unfavorable score is 69 percent to 5 percent. And among Republicans who identify themselves as “very conservative,” it’s 72 percent to 2 percent.

In follow-up interviews with respondents supporting Cain, they argue that he’s not a politician, and that he seems real. “He has common-sense answers and is in touch with the heartbeat of America,” said one respondent, a 46-year-old male from Florida…

Despite Cain’s rise and Perry’s fall over the past month and a half, Romney’s standing in the Republican horse race hasn’t changed — it was 23 percent in August, and it’s unchanged at 23 percent now.

Perry’s lost 22 points since the last poll — and not a single one went to Romney. That’s how reluctant base voters are to back him over some other conservative in the field.

While RS McCain linked to Nate Silver’s reasoning why an early New Hampshire Primary won’t necessarily benefit Romney (but is the reason behind all these early states front-loading so drastically), I have another reason why it won’t necessarily benefit Romney. New Hampshire should be a clear Romney win, being that New Hampshire is more squish than Conservative and there are multiple candidates gunning for the Conservative, anti-squish vote. Nevada might be a Romney win because Nevada has a higher percentage of squish voters. But both states will be losing half their delegates due to the early Primary/Caucuses. While Iowa and South Carolina are clearly more Conservative and will also be losing half their delegates, Romney was depending on an early Florida to freeze out his Conservative opposition and win Florida (which is losing half its delegates). But Florida polling shows Cain has a commanding lead over Romney in Florida.

There is only Romney vying for the squish left-wing of the Republican Party voters. Asterisk Huntsman doesn’t count. But there are 5 vying for the Conservative base of the Republican Party voters: Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum. Combined, they have a large majority of the vote, and those voters are not going to drop a Conservative choice to pick up the squish option. Just not going to happen.

After Iowa and New Hampshire (which lose half their delegates), two of the five Conservative options will drop out. After Nevada and South Carolina (which lose half their delegates), a third Conservative option will drop out, leaving two Conservative options, who will pick up the voters who had sided with the Conservative options who dropped out, going up against the squish Romney, who cannot get past that quarter of the vote line despite the risings and fallings of Conservative options.

So Florida’s move, causing all the other moves and all five states to lose half their delegates, will weed out several second-tier Conservative options and concentrate the Conservative vote early. And the remaining Conservative candidates will have more time to focus their attention directly on Romney and get their message out without the clutter of the also-rans. Florida’s move, pushing 5 states way too early, could cause TWO Conservative candidates to beat the squish Romney, pushing the squish Romney to third place. Instead of locking up the nominating process for the Ruling Class Establishment RINO, Florida may have sealed Romney’s fate as a failed candidate. And I won’t shed a tear if that is the result.

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